Higher temperatures are forecast for May across most of Kazakhstan. This weather will promote increased moisture evaporation from the soil surface, which could lead to rapid drying of the arable layer (0-20 cm) and localized moisture deficits by the start of sowing, according to Kazhydromet.
According to forecasters, moisture reserves in the one-meter soil layer are expected to be generally satisfactory and optimal by the start of mass sowing.
"However, there is an uneven distribution due to the distribution of productive soil moisture reserves in the fall, precipitation, snow cover, and other factors," Kazhydromet noted.
In the West Kazakhstan region, according to estimates, productive moisture reserves (PMR) in the one-meter soil layer are generally expected to be satisfactory, ranging from 59-69% of the lowest field capacity (LFC), or 95-147 mm. Optimal moisture conditions are predicted only in certain areas of the Baiterek district (Peremetnoye, Darinsk) – 149-160 mm, or 85-87% of LFC.
In the Aktobe region, expected soil moisture reserves are generally expected to be satisfactory, ranging from 55-152 mm, or 53-70% of LFC.
In the Akmola region, calculated PMRs of 140-204 mm are considered optimal, at 81-117% of LFC. Satisfactory moisture reserves are 97-107 mm (63% of the maximum allowable capacity) in Atbasarsky District, 159-169 mm (66% of the maximum allowable capacity) in Zhaksynsky District, and 163-192 mm (72-80% of the maximum allowable capacity) in Shortandy District.
In North Kazakhstan Region, satisfactory moisture conditions, or 60-80% of the maximum allowable capacity, are expected by the start of spring field work. Optimal moisture conditions are expected in the Ualikhanov district (143-153 mm, or 98% of the maximum permissible capacity), as well as in some fields in the M. Zhumabayev district (160-198 mm, or 88-104% of the maximum permissible capacity), the Aiyrtau district (174-184 mm, or 86% of the maximum permissible capacity), and the Zhambyl district (166-185 mm, or 84-89% of the maximum permissible capacity). Insufficient moisture is expected in pastures in the Akzhar district (35-45 mm, or 45% of the maximum permissible capacity).
In the Kostanay region, moisture reserves for the sowing season are forecast to be generally satisfactory and optimal. Optimal moisture conditions are forecast for the B. Maylin and Sarykol districts, as well as most of the Fyodorovsky and Karabalyk districts, with precipitation ranging from 134-170 mm or 81-97% of the maximum permissible limit. Satisfactory precipitation levels are expected in the Karasu, Denisovsky, Mendykarinsky, Kostanaysky, Auliekolsky, and in some areas of the Karasu and Fyodorovsky districts, with precipitation ranging from 116-171 mm or 63-80% of the maximum permissible limit.
In the Pavlodar region, mostly satisfactory moisture conditions are forecast: in the Terenkolsky, Uspensky, Irtyshsky, Sharbakty, Aktogay, Pavlodar, and Zhelezinsky districts, precipitation levels are expected to be 70-163 mm or 54-80% of the maximum permissible limit.
In the Karaganda region, optimal moisture conditions are expected in some areas of the Nura district, with 139-149 mm (105% of the maximum permitted level). In other districts of the region, satisfactory moisture reserves are expected, ranging from 70-163 mm or 54-80% of the maximum permitted level.
In the Abay region, satisfactory moisture conditions are expected in the Urzhar district, with 128-138 mm (68% of the maximum permitted level), and in the Borodulikha district, with 95-106 mm (77-78% of the maximum permitted level).
In the East Kazakhstan region, optimal moisture reserves are expected in the Glubokovsky and Altay districts, with 106-114% of the maximum permitted level. Satisfactory moisture reserves, ranging from 61-80% of the maximum permitted level, are expected in the Shemonaikha, Samara, and Ulken-Naryn districts.
In the Almaty region, optimal moisture reserves are predicted in certain areas of the Yenbekshikazakh and Zhambyl districts, ranging from 93-136% of the maximum permissible capacity. Satisfactory moisture conditions are expected in the Uygur district (83-90 mm (74-7% of the maximum permissible capacity)), Raiymbek district (52-62 mm (59% of the maximum permissible capacity)), Kegen district (72-82 mm (62% of the maximum permissible capacity)), as well as in the Zhambyl district (85-95 mm (61% of the maximum permissible capacity) in pastures and 122-134 mm (76-77% of the maximum permissible capacity) in arable land.
In the Zhetysu region, optimal moisture conditions are forecast to prevail in the Kerbulak, Alakol, Sarkand, Panfilov, Karatal, and Eskeldin (Taldykorgan) districts – 169-262 mm (87-150% of the maximum permissible limit). Insufficient moisture is expected in the pastures of the Karatal district – 61-71 mm, or 47% of the maximum permissible limit.