From September to January of the current marketing year (MY), Kazakhstan exported 7,808,200 tons of wheat and flour in grain equivalent, a 53% increase compared to the same period last MY. In January, total grain equivalent exports reached a record 2,686,200 tons, according to Yevgeny Karabanov, head of the analytical committee of the Kazakhstan Grain Union.
According to the Grain Union, total exports to Uzbekistan increased by 67% due to increased wheat shipments.
Exports to Afghanistan increased by 15%, also due to increased wheat shipments, despite a decrease in wheat flour shipments.
China increased its imports from Kazakhstan by 1.95 times, driven by a sharp increase in feed meal volumes, despite a sharp decline in wheat imports.
Turkmenistan saw a 1.8-fold increase due to increased wheat flour imports.
Shipments to Kyrgyzstan increased 2.7-fold due to increased imports of wheat and wheat flour.
Georgia increased imports 4.85-fold, driven by wheat volumes.
Exports to Tajikistan increased by 1.7%, also driven by wheat shipments.
Exports to Russia increased 1.75-fold due to increased shipments of wheat and wheat flour.
Exports to Turkey increased 27-fold due to increased shipments of durum wheat.
Additionally, the list of importers in the current marketing year includes Iran, Algeria, Portugal, the Netherlands, and Tunisia, to which no exports were recorded in the first five months of the previous marketing year.
At the same time, the following countries reduced their imports of Kazakh wheat and flour during this period:
Azerbaijan - by 34% due to a decrease in wheat imports;
Italy - by 17% due to a decrease in durum wheat imports;
Latvia - by 61% due to a decrease in durum wheat imports;
Norway - by 53% due to a decrease in wheat imports.
"We are increasing our previous forecast for combined exports of wheat, wheat flour, and feed meal in grain equivalent to 13 million tonnes, which will be an all-time record," said Evgeny Karabanov. The previous Grain Union forecast was 12.55 million tonnes.
The expert also provided detailed data on wheat exports (soft and durum). In January, shipments totaled 958,800 tonnes, a 1.9-fold decrease from the record December figure. At the same time, this volume is 1.7 times higher than in January of the 2024/25 marketing year. Over the first five months of the 2025/26 marketing year, wheat exports totaled 5,137,400 tonnes, more than 1.5 times higher than the same period of the previous marketing year.
"Central Asian countries (Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Turkmenistan) remain the main destination for wheat exports, accounting for 4,148,000 tons (2,607,000 tons in the first five months of the previous marketing year). Their share of total exports in the first five months of the 2025/26 marketing year was 81% (78% in the first five months of the previous marketing year), including Uzbekistan, which accounted for 66% (57%). Thus, two-thirds of the projected wheat export potential has been exported in the first five months of the current marketing year," stated Evgeny Karabanov.
The Grain Union forecasts soft and durum wheat exports in the current season at 7.8 million tons.