Comfortable Remaining Stocks
Traditionally, prices for the new season's harvest are influenced by remaining grain and oilseed crops from previous years. If these stocks are large, they put pressure on the market. In 2025, Kazakhstan had a good harvest thanks to favorable weather – approximately 19 million tons of wheat alone were harvested.
However, Evgeny Karabanov doesn't believe that the country's elevators will have excess stocks by September 2026. He predicts the optimal stock level at 2 million to 2.5 million tons. This means the market shouldn't fear pressure on prices for the new harvest.
"These are optimal figures for us," the expert noted. "Why is the figure 'floating'? It can change depending on both our summer exports and grain imports from Russia. Therefore, fluctuations within the range of half a million tons are possible." Record Exports
Responding to the question of where the massive 2025 harvest went, Evgeny Karabanov pointed out the record export rates: in some months, around 1.5 million tons of grain cargo left the country by rail, although the maximum capacity for the infrastructure is considered to be 1 million tons per month.
"We estimate the 2025 wheat harvest at 17.9 million tons net, which is commercial grain," noted Evgeny Karabanov. "There was strong demand for our wheat from Central Asian countries. Afghanistan sharply increased its purchases of our wheat – 2.8 times compared to last season. The overall increase in wheat exports was 17%, reaching 6 million tons. Adding to this the increased export volumes of food and feed flour, we get a total export volume of 9.7 million tons – grain and flour in grain equivalent." This is for the first seven months of the current marketing year, from September 2025 to March 2026. For the entire year, we forecast exports of approximately 13.5 million tons. For comparison, last year's figure was 12.9 million tons.
Flour as a Lifesaver
Speaking of flour: according to the Grain Union of Kazakhstan, food flour exports have grown by 8% since the beginning of the current marketing year, while feed flour exports have grown by approximately 30%. Overall, feed flour exports for the entire marketing year are forecast to be 3.2 million tons (compared to 2.2 million tons last season).
Of course, these forecasts may not come true if China, the main buyer of feed flour, imposes any restrictions. Several temporary difficulties of this nature have already arisen this year, causing concern among processors. There is no guarantee that such difficulties will not arise again.
"If feed meal exports to China are restricted, it will significantly impact our wheat market," warned Evgeny Karabanov. "For us, developing feed meal production was a lifesaver in years when, due to weather conditions, we received large volumes of low-quality wheat, including durum wheat that had lost its vitreousness due to rain. Ultimately, it all went into feed meal. Both farmers and our millers benefited, as they were able to utilize their idle capacity.
If demand from processors falls, this will put pressure on prices.
Government Intervention
Another risk to grain prices is the reduction in VAT refunds for traders: they now receive a refund of only 20% of the full VAT amount, or about 3% instead of 16%. This represents a price penalty of 8,000-10,000 tenge per ton at current prices. This effect is not yet visible due to the rise in global wheat prices due to the war in Iran. However, once the conflict ends and prices decline, a decline in wheat prices in Kazakhstan's domestic market is likely.
Another potential "surprise" from the government, devastating for the grain market, is the renewed discussion of introducing an export duty on wheat of $30 per ton. If this happens (although all experts have already expressed strong opposition), wheat prices will fall by the same amount, or 15,000 tenge per ton. This is the approximate profitability level currently achieved by Kazakhstani farmers.
In other words, introducing export duties will destroy the profitability of grain production, leading to farmer bankruptcy, job losses in rural areas, and a mass migration of rural residents to cities.
Who will benefit? Perhaps only the millers, who will receive cheaper raw materials for a short period. But this will only last until farmers sell off their remaining stock. After that, processors will simply lose their raw material base due to a sharp reduction in wheat acreage.
"If duties are introduced, Kazakhstan will only be able to increase flour exports by 100,000-200,000 tons per year," explained Evgeny Karabanov. "But is it worth disrupting the entire market for this meager volume? I hope common sense prevails, and the duties will not be imposed."
Final Forecast
The tenge's exchange rate against the dollar and the ruble, as well as the volume of the Kazakh and Russian harvests, will also influence the price of the new wheat harvest in Kazakhstan. The impact of all these factors will become apparent in September, during the mass harvest of the new crop.
"Currently, a ton of grade 3 wheat costs up to 100,000 tenge per ton," said Evgeny Karabanov. "We've listed the factors that could either lower or raise this price. First and foremost, geopolitics—whether the war in Iran and Ukraine continues or not. And everything else. But it's safe to say that if we collect an average harvest (and so far, everything points to this), we could see last year's wheat price starting in September—85,000 tenge per ton for grade 3 wheat. That wouldn't be bad. It's probably not so good for farmers, but it's not bad for the current situation. Further price dynamics will depend on many factors.