The total grain harvest in Kazakhstan for the current season reached 21.5 million tonnes, including 16 million tonnes of wheat. These figures were provided by the International Grains Council (IGC) in its October report.
This result represents a decrease of 3.3 million tonnes (17.1%), driven specifically by a shortfall in the wheat harvest—which the IGC had estimated at 19.3 million tonnes the previous year. This is not surprising, as summer weather conditions were unfavorable for crop development, characterized by prolonged high temperatures and a lack of moisture.
(It should be noted that Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Agriculture typically maintains a much more optimistic outlook than international experts, reporting that by mid-October, 23 million tonnes of grain of all types had been harvested in the country.)
Nevertheless, the International Grains Council considers Kazakhstan’s wheat harvest sufficient to meet both domestic demand and export requirements—especially given that, this season, Russian wheat is competing with Kazakh grain in Central Asian markets.
According to the report, Kazakhstan entered the 2026/27 agricultural season with 3.5 million tonnes of wheat in carryover stocks. Factoring in the new harvest (16 million tonnes) and projected imports (0.6 million tonnes), the total wheat supply amounts to 20 million tonnes. Of this volume, 8 million tonnes are earmarked for domestic use (food, processing, and animal feed), while 9.3 million tonnes are set for export. The remaining 2.8 million tonnes will constitute carryover stocks. The projected export volume of 9.3 million tonnes is well below last year’s record (11.8 million tonnes), yet it falls squarely within the range of long-term averages and aligns with the capacity of the railway infrastructure.
Overall, experts from the International Grains Council (IGC) estimate wheat production for the 2026/27 season across major exporting nations at 396.1 million tonnes (down from 437.6 million tonnes in the 2025/26 season)—a decline of 9.5%.
In addition to Kazakhstan, production decreases are also expected in:
the United States (41.7 million tonnes, down from 54.1 million tonnes),
Russia (88.4 million tonnes, down from 90.3 million tonnes),
the EU (133 million tonnes, down from 143.4 million tonnes),
Canada (36.3 million tonnes, down from 40.6 million tonnes),
Australia (30.8 million tonnes, down from 36 million tonnes), and
Argentina (21.7 million tonnes, down from 27.9 million tonnes).
Global wheat prices are currently 31% higher than they were a year ago; on the U.S. exchange, as of Friday, October 16, futures were priced at $6.60 per bushel ($242 per tonne).