Significant grain surpluses are accumulating in the Black Sea region, unable to reach the global market due to restrictions on maritime exports from Ukraine and Russia. This creates an unusual situation: stocks are building up and grain prices are falling within the producing countries, while limited availability of Black Sea produce keeps prices high on the international market. However, should shipping resume, these accumulated volumes could rapidly flood foreign markets, triggering a sharp rise in competition and a drop in global prices.
The volume of accumulated grain is growing. Estimates presented at an IFPRI–AMIS seminar indicate that combined wheat exports from Ukraine and Russia between July and September 2026 were 6.5 million tonnes lower than in the same period the previous year. If shipping issues persist, this shortfall could widen to 10.2 million tonnes by the end of October. While some grain is being rerouted via the Danube, rail networks, and Baltic ports, these routes are more expensive and cannot fully replace Black Sea shipping capacity.
The problem is particularly acute in domestic markets. In Ukraine, export restrictions are straining grain storage facilities and driving up logistics costs, forcing farmers to accept lower purchase prices. In Russia, the situation is compounded by a bumper harvest, which could reach 140 million tonnes in 2026. Disruptions at ports in the Azov-Black Sea basin are causing grain to pile up in producing regions, and wheat prices in certain southern areas have dropped significantly. Consequently, a massive harvest that would normally generate substantial export revenue is becoming a financial burden for producers.
At the same time, the current situation may prove temporary. The investment firm Dragon Capital projects that Ukraine could resume maritime grain exports as early as 2027, thanks to a diplomatic agreement similar to the 2022–2023 grain corridor. The restoration of safe shipping could also facilitate exports from Russian ports. If both countries gain the ability to export accumulated stocks more actively, the global market could face a sharp surge in the supply of Black Sea wheat. Price pressure could be particularly intense if large shipments of grain enter the markets of the Middle East, North Africa, and Asia simultaneously.
Thus, the primary risk for the global grain market lies not only in the prolonged blockade of the Black Sea but also in the potential consequences of its resolution. While current export restrictions constrain global supply, they simultaneously lead to the accumulation of stocks that could later exert downward pressure on prices. If maritime routes reopen after months of grain stockpiling, importers will gain additional purchasing opportunities, while exporters will be forced to compete more aggressively for buyers. Under this scenario, the restoration of the grain corridor could represent not only a logistical breakthrough but also the start of a new period of declining global wheat prices.