The Ministry of Agriculture of Kazakhstan published a review and market forecast for grain, oilseeds, and legumes through August 10, 2026. Analysts at the "Grain and Oilseeds. Kazakhstan" research bureau recommend suspending soft wheat sales, gradually selling barley, durum, flax, rapeseed, safflower, soybeans, and white mustard, and promptly selling sunflower seeds, peas, and lentils due to the lack of strong price growth prospects, according to the APK News agency.
General Market Situation: Key Players Take a Wait-and-See Approach
The market is in a "low-start" and waiting phase. Both importers and domestic processors have adopted a wait-and-see approach. All market participants understand that as the harvesting campaign accelerates and grain and oilseeds begin to arrive at elevators, price benchmarks will become more objective and transparent. Against this backdrop, price dynamics in early August appear largely stable, with minor localized adjustments.
Grain Market: Subdued Demand and the "Stop" Strategy
For grain crops, the bureau's experts issue a unanimous "STOP" recommendation for the entire soft wheat range. This means that producers should not rush into sales at current prices; it's better to suspend trading until more favorable market conditions emerge.
Soft Wheat:
Class 3 wheat with gluten content of 28+ is priced at an average of 117 tenge/kg (up 2 tenge over the week), with potential for growth to 145 tenge/kg.
Class 3 wheat with gluten content up to 25 is priced at 106 tenge/kg, up 2 tenge.
Grade 3 wheat with gluten up to 23 is priced at 101 tenge/kg, unchanged from last week.
Grades 4 and 5 wheat are trading at 90 tenge/kg, with grade 4 down 5 tenge/kg over the week.
Alternative Grains (Durum and Barley):
For barley and durum wheat, the recommendation is softer: "AS MEASURED" (sell as financial or technically necessary).
Durum is showing good potential: with current prices of 93-106 tenge/kg, the maximum forecast is 120-140 tenge/kg, depending on protein content (14+ and 15+).
Oilseeds and Legumes: Stratifying Strategies ("Sell" vs. "As MEASURED")
The oilseed and legume market is recovering more quickly, with the first offers of the new harvest arriving. In particular, in the Kostanay region, initial sales of the new sunflower harvest are being recorded at 220,000-225,000 tenge per ton, including VAT.
Crops recommended for sale ("SALE"):
Sunflower (current price 221 tenge/kg) and legumes (yellow peas - 85 tenge/kg, red lentils - 112 tenge/kg, green lentils - 110 tenge/kg) have received a sell recommendation. Analysts believe there is no favorable prospect for price growth in the near future (for example, peas and lentils have dropped by 15 tenge/kg in the past week). Meanwhile, the price range for sunflower is set at 180-240 tenge/kg.
Crops with moderate sales ("AS MEASURED"):
Flax (203 tenge/kg), rapeseed (225 tenge/kg), safflower (178 tenge/kg), soybeans (193 tenge/kg), and white mustard (215 tenge/kg) are recommended to be sold only as needed. These crops have good growth potential until the end of the season (for example, soybeans could rise to 250 tenge/kg, mustard to 260 tenge/kg, and flax to 230 tenge/kg).
Summary and Recommendations for Agricultural Producers
Don't rush to sell wheat: the "STOP" recommendation for soft wheat indicates that current price levels are close to a local minimum, and it would be advisable to wait until the peak of harvesting pressure.
Diversify your oilseed sales: while experts advise selling sunflower and legumes (due to the lack of strong bullish drivers in the future), it makes sense to hold back on flax, rapeseed, and soybean volumes, focusing on the upper limits of forecasts.
Consider logistics and quality: the prices listed are weighted averages (at the elevator or railcar, including VAT) and can fluctuate significantly depending on the region of production, grade, humidity, foreign matter, and delivery conditions.