At a meeting of the Interdepartmental Commission last week, a decision was made to completely ban wheat imports into Kazakhstan by rail and road. This was announced by Yevgeny Gan, Chairman of the Founding Council of the Union of Grain Processors of Kazakhstan. The Grain Union of Kazakhstan confirmed this information, noting that there is no official protocol on this ban yet, according to the APK News agency.
"Initially, the Interdepartmental Commission planned a complete ban on wheat imports without exceptions. The Union of Grain Processors of Kazakhstan managed to convince the Interdepartmental Commission to import wheat exclusively by rail, according to lists submitted by the Union of Grain Processors (based on experience from 2024). This exception also includes elevators and poultry farms, which will also import wheat according to these lists," Yevgeny Gan noted.
In this regard, he expressed several thoughts.
First, the justification for the ban.
"A month ago, in early May, the Kazakhstan Grain Union forecast that by the start of the new season, Kazakhstan would arrive with 2 million tons of grain remaining from previous years, which is quite normal. The forecast was made taking into account current Russian grain imports.
"This volume will not put pressure on the market or prices," the Grain Union noted.
As we can see, the Grain Union's forecast was unconvincing, and a decision was made to ban wheat imports," said Evgeny Gan.
Second, reduced demand for Russian grain should lead to a decrease in the price of wheat grain in border regions, which, in turn, should lower the price of Russian wheat flour.
"Then, logically, if we ban wheat imports into our country, it would be appropriate to simultaneously ban the import of wheat flour," said E. Gan.
Third, the 2024 and 2025 harvests were record-breaking. It's clear that repeating such a record is unlikely. Moreover, hoping for a consistently high wheat harvest would be naive, to say the least. The populations of Central Asian countries and Afghanistan are growing rapidly, and given the high bread consumption rates in these countries, the annual increase in bread consumption is estimated at 400,000 tons per year (according to the Grain Processors' Union).
"If this is true, then we need to understand today whether we will be able to meet the growing demand for wheat in our region in the medium term. After all, in a couple of years, several more deep grain processing plants will be launched, requiring at least an additional two million tons of wheat per year," noted Yevgeny Gan.
The Grain Union of Kazakhstan told APK News that the ban on wheat imports has been imposed with the exception of millers and poultry farmers, but no protocol for this ban has yet been issued.