Warning signs of a slowdown in grain and milled product exports were detected in Kazakhstan in early February. Commercial and logistics services need to quickly identify the causes of the February slowdown. This was reported by the National Association of Exporters "KazGrain" in its report "Analysis of Grain and Milled Product Freight Transportation: 2025 Results and 2025-2026 MY Trends," according to APK News.
The report states that operational data for 2026 requires a rapid response to the logistical slowdown in February.
According to the data presented, January 2026 marked a record start to grain exports, reaching 1.45 million tons (an increase of 38% compared to January 2025). Milled product exports also demonstrated positive dynamics, reaching 229,000 tons—an increase of 99% compared to January of the previous year.
However, early February revealed alarming signs of a slowdown in logistics processes. In the first five days of the month, grain exports totaled only 177,000 tonnes, a 25% decline compared to the same period in 2025. Milled product exports also declined, reaching only 27,000 tonnes, a 42% decrease compared to last year.
These figures indicate the need for a swift response to address the delays and restore previous shipment rates, according to exporters.
"Commercial and logistics services must quickly identify the causes of the February slowdown—whether infrastructure constraints or weather conditions—to maintain shipment rates in the current quarter," the report notes.
Overall, 2025 is described as a boom in commodity exports amid a transformation in processing. Grain shipments increased by 31%. Total export volumes reached 14.2 million tonnes.
Optimization of processing was also noted. Milled product volumes fell by 13%. Volumes concentrated at 2.78 million tonnes. Factors included: a contracting domestic market and shifting demand in Afghanistan and China.
Meanwhile, a reversal to the south and west has occurred:
Sharp growth in shipments to Central Asian countries.
Increased transit through Russia and ports to Iran.
Abnormal double-digit decline in volumes to China.
"Grain is reaching a historic high thanks to explosive growth in export destinations. The main drivers of grain exports were Uzbekistan, transit through Russia, and new routes through Iran. China remained the only major player to show a double-digit decline in grain shipments. This signals a need to reconsider eastern logistics strategies. In contrast to the explosive growth in Central Asian markets and transit routes, shipments to China have more than halved. The 2026 operational summary indicates that the attempt at stabilization in January (90,000 tonnes, 135% of last year) has not held. "The first five days of February show a sharp decline to 7,000 tons (44% compared to the same period in 2025)," the Association's document states.
Exporters also noted that the volume of milled products shipped is being adjusted due to the decline in domestic freight traffic.
"Despite the overall decline for the calendar year, the marketing year (September to January) shows signs of stabilization in the export market: export volumes amounted to 965,000 tons, almost reaching last year's level (99%)," the report states.
The decline in traditional flour markets is offset by extremely high growth rates in Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan.
"The total share of Central Asian countries increased by 14% (to 805,000 tons), indicating a reduction in dependence on the volatility of the Afghan and Chinese markets," the exporters believe.
Importing countries are making a strategic choice in favor of unprocessed raw materials:
Grain exports to Uzbekistan increased by 32%, while milled products decreased by 17%. Processing is being localized. The country is actively purchasing raw materials to feed its own mills.
Grain exports to Afghanistan increased by 63%, while milled product exports to Afghanistan decreased by 16%. This is due to the similar trend in Uzbekistan of import substitution of finished products with raw materials.
Grain exports to China decreased by 55%, while milled products decreased by 41%. The systemic decline in demand in both directions is due to macroeconomic factors or logistical barriers.
Grain exports to Kyrgyzstan/Turkmenistan increased by 128%. Milled product exports increased by 380%. Exponential growth in consumption of both raw materials and finished products has been observed.