According to the Analytical Committee of the Grain Union of Kazakhstan, EXW prices (in thousands of tenge/t), including 12% VAT:
Wheat, Class 3 (23-24%) - 88-92 ▶️;
Wheat, Class 3 (25-26%) - 91-95;
Wheat, Class 3 (27%) - 108-112;
Wheat, Class 3 (28-29%) - 117-121;
Wheat, Class 3 (30+) - 126-129;
Wheat, Class 4 - 75-78;
Wheat, Class 5 - 65-68;
Feed barley - 76-80;
Flaxseed - 235-245 ▶️.
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National Bank of Kazakhstan exchange rates:
541.19 tenge/$;
6.49 tenge/₽;
636.44 tenge/€;
76.08 tenge/¥.
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Export prices, USD/ton:
Wheat, 3rd grade (23-24% grade) - 199-203 DAP Saryagash;
Wheat, 3rd grade (25-26% grade) - 210-215 DAP Saryagash;
Wheat 3 Cl (27% class) - 230 - 235 DAP Saryagash ▶️;
Wheat 3 Kl (28-29% kL) - 245 - 250 DAP Saryagash;
Wheat 3 class (class 30+) - 270-275 ▶️;
Wheat 4 grade - 185 - 190 DAP Saryagash ▶️;
Wheat 5 grade - 175 - 180 DAP Saryagash ▶️;
Barley - 188 - 192 - DAP Saryagash ▶️;
Barley - 205-210 FOB - Aktau ▶️;
Barley - 192-196 DAP Dostyk/Altynkol ▶️;
Flaxseed - 540-550 FCA - departure station;
Kazakhstani flour (Atta - Afghan milling) - 240-245 DAP Saryagash ▶️;
1st-grade flour - 285-295 DAP Saryagash ▶️;
Premium flour - 385-390 DAP Saryagash ▶️.
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Domestic market:
Last week, grain prices on the Kazakh domestic market fluctuated in different directions.
⬇️ Prices fell:
- Class 4 and 5 wheat by 3,000 and 4,000 tenge/ton, respectively;
- Class 3 wheat (Class 25-26) by 1,000 tenge/ton;
- Barley by 2,000 tenge/ton.
⬆️ Prices increased:
- Class 3 wheat (Class 27, 28-29, and 30+), by 1,000 tenge/t.
The price of Class 3 wheat (Class 23-24) remained unchanged.
Prices for Class 4 and 5 wheat have been declining for the third week in a row. Reasons: increased supply of Class 4 and 5 wheat from the new harvest. At the same time, a shortage of high-quality wheat on the market is driving up prices for Class 25-26, 27, 28-29, and 30+ wheat.
The decline in barley prices is due to weak demand from exporters - Iran is buying Russian barley, while China is taking small volumes.
Forex market:
Last week, the tenge weakened against all currencies. By the end of the week, the tenge had fallen against the US dollar and the Russian ruble by 0.1%.
ETS Exchange:
Over the past week, only export transactions totaling 7,250 tonnes of wheat were recorded on the ETS Exchange:
- 2,100 tonnes of grade 4 wheat on DAP Saryagash terms at a price of 92,001 tenge/t (~170 USD/t);
- 1,050 tonnes of grade 4 wheat on DAP Saryagash terms at a price of 94,647 tenge/t (~175 USD/t);
- 3,050 tonnes of grade 5 wheat on DAP Turksib (Kyrgyzstan) terms at a price of 94,677 tenge/t (~175 USD/t);
- 1,050 tonnes of off-grade wheat on DAP Saryagash terms at a price of 85,882 tenge/t (~159 USD/t).
Additionally, during the past week, the following lots were offered on the ETS on EXW (linear elevator with VAT) terms:
- Class 4 wheat at 88,000 tenge/t;
- Class 5 wheat at 85,000 tenge/t;
- Class 2 barley at 85,000 tenge/t.
Transactions on these lots did not take place. It should be noted that there were no offers for Class 3 wheat on the ETS last week.
Export:
Export prices for some wheat grades increased:
- Class 3 wheat (grades 23-24) increased by USD 1/t;
- Class 3 wheat (grades 25-26) increased by USD 2/t;
- Class 3 wheat (grades 28-29) increased by USD 5/t.
Export prices for Class 27 and 30+ wheat remained unchanged.
The reasons for the price increase for high-quality wheat include a supply shortage in the market, coupled with increased demand from domestic millers and exporters.
Barley export prices remained unchanged across the board. However, weak demand from Iran and China should be a concern for exporters.
Seasonal increases in logistics costs continue. Compared to the end of August, prices for integrated logistics services (railcar rental + railway tariffs) to Central Asian countries have increased by 30-35% (USD 8-10/t) due to increased seasonal demand for railcars, higher rates in Russia, extensive railcar unloading delays at Russian ports, and, as a result, a decrease in the Russian railcar fleet in Kazakhstan.
According to market participants, further price increases for freight forwarding services are expected in October.
Subsidies:
According to the press service of JSC NK Food Corporation, as of September 15, the Food Corporation had paid exporters 19.1 billion tenge for the delivery of 828,400 tons of wheat. The operator received a total of 553 requests for reimbursement of transportation costs. The total volume of export shipments amounted to 1.2 million tons of wheat, worth 28.2 billion tenge.
Funding is provided as budget funds become available.
The Rules for the Payment of Subsidies, aimed at reducing costs associated with grain transportation, were recently extended until September 1, 2026. The allocation of additional funds for the 2025/26 marketing year is under discussion, depending on the domestic price situation.
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Flaxseed:
The domestic price remained unchanged, while the export price decreased by 5 USD/t.
The price of Kazakh flax on CIF ARAG terms remained unchanged last week at USD 690/t, for October delivery.
The price of Kazakh brown flax (97% purity) on DAP Poland terms remained unchanged at EUR 590-595/t. However, if the closure of the Belarusian-Polish border is long-term, logistics routes will change, and flax prices in Poland will inevitably rise.
On the Chinese market, flax prices also remained unchanged last week:
- on the domestic market: CNY 5,100-5,250/t;
- at the port of Tianjin: CNY 4,150-4,250/t.
Reasons: supply of the new harvest remains low due to delays in harvesting in Siberia and Kazakhstan.
Weather:
Last week, the weather was favorable in most regions of the country, with little precipitation, allowing for the harvest to accelerate. Daytime temperatures ranged from 16 to 24°C, with nighttime temperatures ranging from 6 to 16°C.
This week, forecasters predict a cooler climate with variable cloudiness and light precipitation, primarily rain. Daytime temperatures ranged from 12 to 23°C, with nighttime temperatures ranging from 4 to 14°C.
Harvest:
Last week, dry and warm weather across most of the country allowed for a significant acceleration of harvesting in the northern regions of Kazakhstan. According to the Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Kazakhstan, as of September 18, 8.4 million hectares, or 52.6% of the total area of grain and legume crops, had been harvested. 12.7 million tons of grain had been threshed.
In addition to grain crops, 435,000 tons of oilseeds were harvested.
Wheat quality is not improving: the share of grades 4 and 5 wheat remains high.
Summary:
Wheat and barley yields are above the long-term average.
‼️ The price spread between ordinary grade 3 wheat and grades 4 and 5 grain will widen. High-quality wheat will be in demand on both domestic and foreign markets. A decline in grade 3 wheat prices is not expected.
‼️❗️Due to rising logistics costs, a decline in grain prices on foreign markets is not expected.