According to the Analytics Committee of the Grain Union of Kazakhstan, prices on EXW terms - elevator, in thousand tenge/t, with VAT 12%:
Wheat 3 cl (cl-on 23-24%) - 90 - 93 ????;
Wheat 3 cl (cl-on 25-26%) - 92 - 95 ????;
Wheat 3 cl (cl-on 27%) - 107 - 110 ▶️;
Wheat 3 cl (cl-on 28-29%) - 118 - 122 ▶️;
Wheat 3 cl (cl-on 30+) - 126 - 129 ????;
Wheat 4 cl - 85 - 88 ▶️;
Wheat 5 class - 83 - 86 ▶️;
Feed barley - 75 - 80 ▶️;
Flax seeds - 245 - 250 ▶️.
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Exchange rates of the National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan:
538.54 tenge/$ ????;
6.70 tenge/₽ ????;
628.31 tenge/€ ????;
75.50 tenge/¥ ????.
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Export prices, USD/ton:
Wheat 3 class (class-on 23-24%) - 201 - 205 DAP Saryagash ▶️;
Wheat 3 cl (cl-na 25-26%) - 204 - 208 DAP Saryagash ▶️;
Wheat 3 cl (cl-na 27%) - 235 - 240 DAP Saryagash ????;
Wheat 3 cl (cl-na 28-29%) - 245 - 250 DAP Saryagash ????;
Wheat 3 cl (cl-na 30+) - 280-285 ????;
Wheat 4 cl - 192 - 195 DAP Saryagash ????;
Wheat 5 cl - 185 - 190 DAP Saryagash ????;
Flax seeds - 550 - 560 FCA - departure station ????;
Barley - 180 - 185 - DAP Saryagash ????;
Barley - 210 - 215 FOB - Aktau ▶️;
Barley - 195 - 200 DAP Dostyk/Altynkol ????;
Kazakhstani flour (Atta - Afghan milling) - 245 - 250 DAP Saryagash ▶️;
1 s flour - 290 - 300 DAP Saryagash ▶️;
Premium flour - 385 - 390 DAP Saryagash ▶️.
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Domestic market:
Last week, there was a slight decrease in prices for some types of grain crops on the domestic market of Kazakhstan.
Almost all wheat fell in price by 1-3 thousand tenge/t. The reason is the expectation of a new harvest and the unwillingness of buyers to take the risks of buying expensive grain.
The price of barley has not changed. The reasons are: high demand and a delay in the arrival of the new harvest on the market due to rains.
The supply of wheat and barley on the domestic market is small due to the delay in harvesting.
Foreign exchange:
Last week, the tenge slightly depreciated against other currencies - by the end of the week, against the US dollar, the tenge weakened by 0.2%.
ETS Exchange:
During the past week, 12,175 tons of wheat were sold on the ETS Exchange, including:
on EXW terms - linear elevator, with VAT 12%:
wheat of class 3 (class 25) - 612 tons at a price of 95 thousand tenge/t;
wheat class 3 (class 23) - 56 tons at a price of 86,517 tenge/t;
wheat class 3 (class 27) - 428 tons at a price of 123 thousand tenge/t;
wheat class 3 (class 30) - 6,788 tons at a price of 125 thousand tenge/t;
wheat class 5 - 21 tons at a price of 86 thousand tenge/t.
4,270 tons of wheat class 3 (class 23-24%) were sold for export at a price of 103,824 tenge/t (193 USD/t), on DAP Saryagash terms.
In addition, during the past week, lots were repeatedly offered on the ETS on EXW terms - linear elevator with VAT:
3rd class wheat (class 27%), at a price of 125 thousand tenge/t;
3rd class wheat (class 30%), at a price of 127 thousand tenge/t;
3rd class wheat (class 25%), at a price of 97 thousand tenge/t;
4th class wheat at a price of 90 thousand tenge/t;
5th class wheat at a price of 87 thousand tenge/t;
2nd class barley at a price of 87 thousand tenge/t.
Transactions on these lots did not take place.
Export:
Export prices for some wheat grades decreased:
- 3 USD/t for grade 3 wheat with grade 27 and grade 5 wheat;
- 5 USD/t for grade 3 wheat with grades 28-29 and 30+;
- 1 USD/t for grade 4 wheat.
At the same time, export prices for grade 3 wheat with grades 23 and 25 remained unchanged.
Reasons for the decrease in wheat prices:
- expectation of a new good harvest in Kazakhstan;
- buyers' reluctance to take risks and buy wheat in anticipation of price correction.
Flaxseed:
The domestic price remained unchanged, while the export price increased by 5 USD/t.
The reasons are the delay in harvesting the new crop and demand from importers.
Flax prices on CIF ARAG terms increased by another 5 USD/t over the past week and are quoted at 705 USD/t, with delivery in September-October.
The price of Kazakh brown flax (97% purity) on DAP Poland terms also increased, by an average of 5 EUR/t and amounted to 590-595 EUR/t.
On the Chinese market, flax prices increased slightly over the week by 50-100 CNY/t. Current prices for flax in China:
- on the domestic market 5100 - 5250 CNY/t,
- in the port of Tianjin - 4150 - 4250 CNY/t.
Reasons:
- low stocks due to delays in harvesting in Siberia and Kazakhstan;
- the export customs duty on flax announced by the Russian Federation in the amount of 10% of the customs value and, as a result, the desire of buyers to purchase the goods before the duty comes into force.
Weather:
Last week in most northern regions of the country it was sunny and warm, but by the end of the week it rained. The air temperature during the day was +20 - +28°C, at night +11 - +18°C. The development phase of most spring cereals is wax ripeness / full ripeness. The development phase of flax is the ripening of the capsules.
This week, forecasters predict a cold snap, with rain at the beginning of the week, then variable cloudiness, no precipitation. Daytime temperatures are +16 - +25°C, at night +8 - + 16°C.
Harvesting:
The weather window in the first half of the past week allowed for the resumption of harvesting grain and legume crops. However, by the end of the week it rained again and the harvesting stopped. According to the operational data of the Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Kazakhstan, as of August 28, 3 million hectares (18.9%) of grain and legume crops have been harvested, from which 4.3 million tons of grain have been threshed. The data includes the harvesting of winter crops in the south of the country.
According to the operational data of the regional agricultural departments, the following has been harvested in the main grain-producing regions of the country:
- in Kostanay region - 567.8 thousand hectares (13.9%);
- in Akmola region - about 900 thousand hectares (16.2%);
- in North Kazakhstan region - almost 500 thousand hectares (16%).
The harvest of oilseeds in the Republic amounted to 74.2 thousand tons. According to experts, no more than 2% of the oilseed area has been harvested.
Thus, due to weather conditions, the harvesting rate this year is significantly lower than the long-term average; the lag is 9-12 days. As expected, there was a decrease in the quality and yield of legumes after heavy and prolonged rains.
Summary:
The harvesting of grain and oilseed crops is delayed due to weather conditions. Mass harvesting will begin after the weather normalizes.
Taking into account the weather factor, a significant decrease in prices for grain and oilseed crops in Kazakhstan is not expected.