Kazakhstan has achieved a bumper harvest of both grain and alternative crops, such as oilseeds and legumes. And the trend toward increasing agricultural productivity is likely to continue. This requires the development of a sustainable, predictable government policy to support agricultural exports and domestic processing to avoid the risk of falling prices due to overproduction. ElDala.kz spoke with Yevgeny Karabanov, head of the analytical committee of the Grain Union of Kazakhstan, about the most effective support tools for the sector.
Big Harvest
According to the expert, grain exports have remained a pressing issue for Kazakhstan's agricultural sector for several years. Despite significant work to expand rail transport corridors to Central Asia and China, logistical constraints are still making themselves felt this season. However, these constraints are now largely related to problems on the buyer side: Uzbekistan and China are unprepared for the increased flow of Kazakh agricultural products and are unable to process incoming trains in a timely manner. This forces KTZ to periodically impose restrictions on railcar loading for export.
"In Uzbekistan, 14 stations have been identified where railcars have accumulated, preventing them from being unloaded and sent back quickly," noted Evgeny Karabanov (pictured). "There are also problems with unloading in China. Although the problems there are more administrative than technical in nature—in China, a lot of time is spent on security checks for incoming cargo." "In Uzbekistan, 14 stations have been identified where railcars have accumulated, preventing them from being unloaded and sent back quickly," noted Evgeny Karabanov (pictured). "There are also problems with unloading in China. Although the problems there are more administrative than technical—in China, a lot of time is spent on security checks for incoming cargo."
The export issue has become acute due to Kazakhstan's bumper harvest. According to the Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Kazakhstan, 20.3 million tons of wheat in net weight have been harvested, which is 500,000 tons more than the 2024 harvest. The Grain Union of Kazakhstan is still compiling its own statistics, but generally agrees with the official figures. These figures were confirmed by a recent report from the US Department of Agriculture, which estimated the 2025 wheat harvest in Kazakhstan at 18.9 million tons in net weight. Considering that the final grain yield is approximately 7-10% less than the net grain weight, the Ministry of Agriculture's figures appear objective.
Farmers were able to achieve a high yield not only thanks to favorable weather during the growing season but also due to improved agricultural practices—the active use of fertilizers and plant protection products, updated equipment, and the use of high-quality seeds. Given the government's focus on facilitating farmers' access to subsidized financing, we can expect further improvements in production standards and, consequently, consistently high yields.
Stable Prices
At the same time, this year the market hasn't seen the precipitous drop in grain prices that it has seen many times in the past during record harvests. Currently, third-grade wheat costs between 85,000 and 90,000 tenge per ton (including VAT), while fourth-grade wheat costs between 75,000 and 80,000 tenge per ton. Yes, there has been a price decline, but not as dramatic as previously. Several factors have contributed to the market's stability.
"First and foremost, we must mention the growth in feed meal production for export to China, which is driving high demand for low-grade grain, which we've had in abundance in recent years," noted Evgeny Karabanov. "This sector continues to develop, with two or three new feed meal production facilities opening in Kazakhstan every month. We're also seeing an increase in export volumes—at the end of September, they exceeded 300,000 tons."
Demand for Kazakh wheat from Central Asian countries has also increased. And it's not just the country's poor harvest (which is worse than last year's). Due to the conflict with Pakistan, Afghanistan has also refused to import grain and flour from there, switching to Kazakhstan. Interest in Russian grain in Central Asia has also declined, as the strengthening ruble has made it less attractive. All this has led to an increase in exports from Kazakhstan, which, for example, reached an all-time high of 1,190,000 tons in October, despite the railway's previously considered maximum capacity being 1 million tons per month.
Obviously, the 21% increase in shipment volumes (October 2025 vs. October 2024) also supported domestic prices.
"Furthermore, it's important to understand that farmers were initially doing better this season than last," noted Evgeny Karabanov. "Grain prices had already risen in early 2025 thanks to the introduction of transport subsidies, which allowed farmers to pay off existing debts and better prepare for the new season. And by the fall, having harvested a new crop, many didn't need to rush large volumes of grain onto the market. They sold some to cover current payments, but they're holding on to the bulk, anticipating price increases in early 2026.
The diversification of crop acreage also played a role. That is, farmers who harvested lentils in late summer managed to sell this first harvest at a good price—red lentils were fetching up to 200,000 tenge per ton. The same applies to oilseeds—rapeseed, for example, offered good profitability at a price above 200,000 tenge. This created a financial buffer for farmers at the end of the season and allowed them to avoid large wheat sales during the mass harvest.
Active Exports
At the same time, the current situation leaves the market fragilely dependent on one sales market – Central Asia. Current rail congestion in this direction creates the risk of a transport collapse – and possible price pressure in that event. Kazakhstan Temir Zholy (KTZ) accommodated grain exporters and, in mid-November, introduced a ten-day priority for agricultural exports specifically to this destination. Unfortunately, however, restrictions on receiving capacities, particularly in Uzbekistan, remained in place, and as a result, Kazakhstan Temir Zholy was forced to reintroduce restrictions on grain loading destined for Saryagash station from November 19-21.
It is possible to alleviate congestion on this route, and there is experience with this – redirecting some exports to distant markets through the introduction of transport subsidies. The Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Kazakhstan used this tool last season and assessed the experience positively. Subsidies have been officially extended for another growing season, until September 2026. However, having said "a," the government is still waiting to say "b": the market is awaiting the exact amount to be allocated for subsidies (30 billion tenge has been tentatively announced), as well as the payment start date and the list of countries to which exports will be supported.
As soon as all this information is announced, traders will be able to calmly begin planning shipments to ports on the Black and Baltic Seas, and the Saryagash station will be unloaded naturally.
"As soon as our grain is exported via alternative routes thanks to transport subsidies, the price of fourth-grade wheat will increase," noted Evgeny Karabanov. "Because it is in demand in the markets of the Middle East, North Africa, and Southeast Asia, which are of interest to us." Considering that this grain currently costs around $230 per ton at ports (FOB), excluding shipping and handling costs, the price of fourth-grade wheat on our domestic market should increase by 10,000. This means the price spread between third- and fourth-grade grain, which has been very wide this year, will narrow. Previously, it was around 3,000 tenge, but today we're seeing 10,000 tenge or even more. This is an abnormal situation, and transport subsidies should even it out.
Additional Income
The introduction of transport subsidies is also important for durum wheat producers. This grain is not priced well in Europe this year, and transport subsidies should help boost sales, including to North African countries.
Transport subsidies have proven effective, generating up to 150 billion tenge in additional income for Kazakhstani farmers last season, noted Evgeny Karabanov. "This amount was only 40 billion tenge from the budget, and the rest was the effect of rising prices due to the fact that we were able to sell grain in distant markets at world prices. The Central Asian market was also forced to raise the asking price for our wheat to this level. In other words, every tenge invested by the state yielded a fourfold effect. So this tool is the most effective and transparent support for farmers. And to make it even more useful, we need to define and adhere to the rules for paying transport subsidies: determine the amount, destination, and timing of payments in advance. It's best to do this at the start of the agricultural season, in September or at least October. Then we'll be present in distant markets throughout the season, rather than visiting them every year as if for the first time." This will allow us to work more consistently with our customers and avoid the discounts that new players are now forced to offer.
And the main beneficiaries will remain Kazakhstan's farmers, who, thanks to stable prices for their products throughout the year, will avoid losses and price drops during the mass harvest.