Analytics on exports from Kazakhstan for 11 months of 2024/25 MY (wheat, wheat and feed flour).
Exports of all wheat (soft + hard) from Kazakhstan in July 2025 amounted to 506.5 thousand tons excluding the EAEU countries. This is 78.1 thousand tons lower than in June. This is the third result of July wheat exports over the past 15 years. ️
The total volume of exports of all wheat for 11 months of the current MY amounted to 7,145.6 thousand tons, which is 49% more than the same period of the previous MY and 22% more than the average for the last 6 MY
Compared to the same period of 2023/24 MY, exports to the following countries also increased:
Uzbekistan by 40%;
Tajikistan by 29%;
Afghanistan by 84%;
Azerbaijan by 276 times;
Kyrgyzstan by 7.7 times;
Latvia by 4.75 times;
Italy by 32%.
A 3.9-fold decrease in wheat exports to China was more than offset by an increase in feed meal supplies by 1,300 thousand tons, or 3 times, y/y.
Exotic items: shipments continued to Vietnam - 5.4 thousand tons, the Netherlands - 4.3 thousand tons.
Wheat imports from the Russian Federation are at a minimum over the past 7 years - 258 thousand tons, or 8.4 times less than the same period last season. The main reasons:
a ban on grain imports to Kazakhstan in the first half of the marketing year (from August 18 to December 31, 2024);
an expensive ruble;
the high cost of Russian grain due to a sharp decrease in stocks by the end of the season and weak harvesting rates in July.
We leave unchanged the previous forecast for the export of Kazakh wheat at 7.7 million tons in the current MY.
***
In July 2025, the export of durum wheat amounted to 38.2 thousand tons (excluding the EAEU countries), which is 18.5 thousand tons less than in June. This indicates the depletion of durum wheat reserves in Kazakhstan.
The main buyer - Italy purchased 37.4 thousand tons (47.8 thousand tons in June).
In addition to traditional Italy, the list of importers of Kazakh durum in July includes only Tajikistan - 0.8 thousand tons.
The total volume of durum wheat exports in the current MY is 548.3 thousand tons, which is 57% more than in the same period of the previous MY and 28% more than the average for the previous 6 MYs.
Thus, in the current MY, 54% of the 2024 durum harvest (1.02 million tons) was exported.
Low-quality and substandard durum was very well selected by feed flour producers.
We leave the previous forecast for durum wheat exports in the current MY - 580 thousand tons.
We estimate the carry-over balance of durum wheat in Kazakhstan at the end of the current MY at 30 thousand tons.
***
After a decrease in June, the export of Kazakh wheat flour in July increased by 18.8 thousand tons to - 123 thousand tons, excluding the EAEU countries.
The increase in exports in July 2025 was due to an increase in purchases by all importers:
Tajikistan by 86% - from 2.2 to 4.1 thousand tons;
Turkmenistan by 80% - from 7.4 to 13.3 thousand tons;
Uzbekistan by 40% - from 21.3 to 29.9 thousand tons;
China by 6% - from 1.6 to 1.7 thousand tons;
Afghanistan by 29% - from 57.3 to 73.9 thousand tons.
The total export of Kazakh wheat flour for 11 months of the current MY amounted to 1,689.4 thousand tons, which is 2.6% lower than the same period of the last MY.
Countries that reduced flour imports from Kazakhstan in the first 11 months of the current MY compared to the same period of the previous MY:
Afghanistan - by 147.5 thousand tons (-13%);
Uzbekistan - by 12.2 thousand tons (-2.7%);
Tajikistan - by 14.9 thousand tons (-25%).
Countries that increased imports of Kazakh flour in the current season compared to the same period of the previous MY:
Turkmenistan - by 45.7 thousand tons (2.4 times);
Kyrgyzstan - by 66.1 thousand tons (2.7 times);
China - by 20.6 thousand tons (3.2 times).
We are increasing the previous forecast for flour exports in 2024/25 MY - by 40 thousand tons to 1,820 thousand tons, which will be slightly lower than the result of the previous MY.
***
In July, 264.6 thousand tons of feed meal were shipped for export. This is 18.2 thousand tons more than in June of this year.
The total volume of feed meal exports since the beginning of the current MY amounted to 1,976.3 thousand tons, which is 2.9 times more than for the same period last season and 2.5 times more than for the entire 2023/24 MY️
Almost 99% of exports were met by demand from China.
***
Once again, we are increasing the previous forecast for feed meal exports in the current MY from 2.05 to 2.25 million tons.
If there are no restrictions from Chinese government agencies, feed meal exports from Kazakhstan to China in the next MY may significantly exceed 2.5 million tons.
This will require an additional 1.5 million tons of grain, which will be imported from the border regions of Russia.
***
Summary data on exports of wheat, wheat and feed flour from Kazakhstan in grain equivalent.
Despite a slight decrease in wheat flour exports, due to a sharp increase in feed flour exports, the total volume of wheat exports in grain equivalent increased by 44% compared to the same period of the previous MY and amounted to 10,979.2 thousand tons. This is 147 thousand tons higher than the record value for the entire 2022/23 MY.
Buying countries that increased imports compared to the same period of the previous MY:
Uzbekistan by 32% due to an increase in wheat imports;
Tajikistan by 25% due to an increase in wheat imports;
China by 1.6 times, due to a sharp increase in feed flour imports;
Kyrgyzstan by 4.3 times due to an increase in wheat and wheat flour imports.
The following countries reduced imports:
Afghanistan by 2.5%, due to a decrease in wheat flour imports;
Turkmenistan by 10%, due to a decrease in wheat imports, despite a 1.8-fold increase in flour imports.
Considering the pace and potential of exports in August, we are once again increasing the forecast for total exports of wheat, wheat and feed flour in grain equivalent from 11.6 million tons to 11.9 million tons, which will be an absolute record for all time.
Due to an increase in the forecast for the export of wheat flour and feed flour, we are reducing the forecast for carry-over wheat from previous years' harvests to 1.65 million tons at the end of the current season, which is a fairly comfortable level for the Kazakhstan market.