The Grain Union of Kazakhstan has published current data on flaxseed exports from Kazakhstan for 9 months (September-May) of 2024/25 MY, APK News agency reports.
“In May, flaxseed exports from Kazakhstan amounted to 39.6 thousand tons, which is 12% more than in April. For 9 months of 2024/25 MY, flaxseed exports amounted to 453.2 thousand tons, which is 2 times more than in the same period of the previous MY and 1.5 times more than for the entire previous MY,” says the information from the head of the Grain Union Analytics Committee, Evgeny Karabanov.
Compared to the same period of the previous MY, exports to EU countries have increased significantly:
Belgium - 165.3 thousand tons (4 times);
Poland - 27.9 thousand tons (2.1 times);
Germany - 10.5 thousand tons (2.6 times).
This is due to the increase in the EU customs duty on Russian flax in 2025.
In addition, supplies from other countries increased:
Afghanistan - 35.9 thousand tons (+ 15%);
China - 173.2 thousand tons (1.9 times);
other countries - 40.4 thousand tons (1.7 times).
According to experts, the area under flax in Kazakhstan increased by 30% compared to last year and amounted to 1.19 million hectares. The main reasons are increased demand from buyers and high marginality of the crop.
The increase in the area under flax occurs in all countries - the main flax producers:
in Canada, by 35%, to 251 thousand hectares;
in Russia, by 2%, to 1.7 million hectares;
in the USA, by 2 times, to 152 thousand hectares.
Thus, a significant increase in the world production and supply of flax seeds is expected in the next season.
Due to the shortage of supply, after a rapid growth in May, when the price for CIF ARAG rose from 870 to 890 USD / t, a rapid decline began in June and currently the price of flax CIF ARAG, with delivery in August, is 750 USD / t.
In Kazakhstan, in the last month, the domestic price on EXW terms - elevator, with VAT 12%, is in equilibrium and is 300-305 thousand tenge / t (578-587 USD / t, 492-500 EUR / t). The export price of flax seeds on FCA terms - Kazakhstan station of departure is at the level of 600-610 USD / t (509-517 EUR / t).
Speaking about the weather, E. Karabanov noted that in most regions of flax production in Kazakhstan it is favorable for plant development - after good precipitation in May-June, flax crops are in good condition. The development phase is "Christmas tree" / flowering. Further, the weather conditions in July-early August will be decisive - during the formation of baskets.
"We are increasing the forecast for flax seed exports from Kazakhstan in the current season by 30 thousand tons, up to 530 thousand tons, with minimum balances at the end of the season - 30 thousand tons," the representative of the Union said.
Also, Evgeny Karabanov named the prospects for flax trade in 2025/26 MY:
"In connection with the expected increase in the harvest in the main flax seed exporting countries, the market will be under pressure associated with high supply. This will be especially pronounced in China, which will become the main market for flax from the Russian Federation, due to the increase in European duties on Russian flax. Some revival of demand and price growth in the markets is possible in the second half of the season."