To the export of wheat from Kazakhstan for 9 months (September - May) 2024/2025 MY:
Despite expectations of a seasonal decline, the export of all wheat (soft + hard) from Kazakhstan in May 2025 amounted to 617.1 thousand tons excluding the EAEU countries. This is 57.1 thousand tons lower than in April. The total volume of wheat exports increased by 47% compared to the same period of the previous marketing year and amounted to 6,040.7 thousand tons.
This is the third result of May wheat exports in the last 15 years: 2012 - export of the record harvest of 2011 + transport subsidies (similar to the current ones), and 2023 - export of high-quality wheat of a good harvest of 2022.
Morocco, which appeared on the list of buyers of Kazakh wheat for the first time this year, continued to increase its purchases in May by 47.5 thousand tons. For 5 months of 2025, wheat supplies from Kazakhstan to this country amounted to 158.6 thousand tons.
Algeria, which bought 8.8 thousand tons for the first time last month, sharply increased the volume of wheat imports from Kazakhstan to 90.5 thousand tons.
In addition, the list of buyers of wheat from Kazakhstan has expanded due to new countries: Norway, the Netherlands, Great Britain, Vietnam, the UAE, Iraq, Vietnam. Also, deliveries to Georgia and Azerbaijan have increased sharply.
This is a direct result of subsidizing transportation costs for domestic wheat exporters in the amount of 20 to 30 thousand tenge per ton, depending on the country of destination.
According to the program operator - JSC NC "Food Contract Corporation", as of June 26, 2025, 426 applications for partial compensation of transportation costs were received. The total volume of export deliveries according to applications amounted to 942.1 thousand tons of wheat for the amount of 21.7 billion tenge (41.7 million USD / 3.27 billion ₽).
For 174 applications, the Food Contract Corporation has previously paid exporters 7.27 billion tenge (14 million USD / 1.1 billion ₽) for the supply of 320.1 thousand tons. Applications will be reviewed and payments will continue until September 1 or until the allocated funds are exhausted, whichever comes first.
Compared to the same period in 2023/24 MY, exports to the following countries also increased:
Uzbekistan by 36%;
Tajikistan by 28%;
Afghanistan by 63%;
Azerbaijan by 255 times;
Kyrgyzstan by 6.5 times;
Latvia by 4.4 times;
Italy by 8%.
A 2.7-fold decrease in wheat exports to China was offset by an increase in feed flour supplies by 1,014 thousand tons, or 3.2 times, y/y.
It should be noted that wheat imports from the Russian Federation continue to show a minimum level over the past 7 years - 167.5 thousand tons, or 11.5 times less than the same period last season. The main reasons are:
- an expensive ruble;
- high cost of Russian grain.
We leave unchanged the previous forecast for the export of Kazakh wheat at 7.7 million tons in the current MY.
You can see the extended current data on the export of all wheat (soft + hard) from Kazakhstan for 9 months (September - May) of 2024/25 MY in the attached file below.
***
Commentary on the data on the export of wheat flour:
The export of Kazakh wheat flour continues to decline. In May 2025, exports fell sharply, compared to April, by 48.2 thousand tons to the minimum value for the current MY - 88 thousand tons!
The decrease in exports was due to a decrease in purchases by the main importer - Afghanistan. Afghanistan reduced flour imports by 143.2 thousand tons (-14% y/y).
Reasons:
seasonal decrease in flour purchase volumes in importing countries;
increased competition from Uzbek flour exporters;
increase in wheat imports by Afghanistan in the current MY.
Uzbekistan itself increased flour imports in the current MY by 1%, Turkmenistan - by 2.2 times, Kyrgyzstan - by 2.4 times, China by 4.7 times, compared to the same period of the last MY.
Total export of Kazakhstani wheat flour for 9 months of the current MY is 1445.5 thousand tons, which is 4% lower than the same period of the last MY by 4%.
We are reducing the forecast for flour exports in 2024/25 MY by 70 thousand tons to 1,780 thousand tons, which is the average value for the last 6 MY.
You can see the current data on wheat flour exports from Kazakhstan for 9 months (September-May) of 2024/25 MY in the attached file below.
ZSK Analytical Committee