Current data on the export of wheat, wheat flour, feed flour and durum wheat from Kazakhstan for 8 months (September - April) 2024/25 MY.
Wheat exports from Kazakhstan in April 2025 amounted to 652 thousand tons excluding the EAEU countries. The total volume of wheat exports - 5,403.3 thousand tons, increased by 43% compared to the same period of the previous MY and has already exceeded the export volume for the entire 2023/24 MY.
Morocco, which appeared on the list of importers of Kazakh wheat for the first time in 17 years, increased its purchase volume in April by 27.5 thousand tons. For 4 months of 2025, wheat supplies from Kazakhstan to this country amounted to 111 thousand tons.
In addition, supplies to Georgia, Algeria and a number of other countries have increased sharply, which is a direct result of subsidizing transportation costs for domestic wheat exporters in the amount of 20 to 30 thousand tenge per ton, depending on the country of destination.
According to JSC NC "Food Contract Corporation", 284 applications from exporters for 625.1 thousand tons worth 14.3 billion tenge are under consideration. Subsidies are planned to be paid in the near future. In May, wheat supplies began to the UAE through Iran and to Vietnam through China.
Compared to the same period of 2023/24 MY, exports to the following countries also increased:
Uzbekistan by 36%;
Tajikistan by 29%;
Afghanistan by 62%;
Azerbaijan by 216 times;
Kyrgyzstan by 5.6 times.
A 2.4-fold decrease in wheat exports to China is more than offset by an increase in feed flour supplies.
At the same time, wheat imports from the Russian Federation are at a 7-year low of 92.4 thousand tons, which is primarily due to the expensive ruble and the high cost of Russian wheat. Also, in August - December 2024, there was a ban on wheat imports to Kazakhstan from all countries.
We are increasing the forecast for Kazakh wheat exports in the current MY from 7.5 to 7.7 million tons.
Kazakh flour exports in April 2025 decreased by 43.2 thousand tons compared to the previous month to 120.3 thousand tons.
A slight overall decrease in exports (-2% y/y) was due to a decrease in purchases by the main importer - Afghanistan. Afghanistan reduced flour imports by 130.8 thousand tons (-14% y/y). This is due to increased competition from Uzbekistan and an increase in wheat imports from Kazakhstan to Afghanistan by 108 thousand tons (+62% y/y).
At the same time, Uzbekistan increased flour imports by 7%, Turkmenistan - 2 times, Kyrgyzstan - 2.4 times, China - 10.5 times.
We leave the flour export forecast for 2024/25 MY at 1,850 thousand tons.
The triumphant march of Kazakh feed flour on the Chinese market continues.
In April 2025, feed flour exports amounted to 219.8 thousand tons. Total exports amounted to a record 1207.5 thousand tons, which is 3.3 times more than in the same period of the last MY.
The main buyer is China, which reduced wheat imports from Kazakhstan by 206.2 thousand tons, but increased purchases of feed meal in grain equivalent by 648 thousand tons, compared to the same period of the previous MY.
We are increasing the forecast for feed meal exports in the current MY from 1.4 million tons to 1.55 million tons.
In April 2025, durum wheat exports amounted to 94.5 thousand tons, which is 2.7 thousand tons less than in March. The main buyer in April: Italy - 74.1 thousand tons. Also, Algeria appeared for the first time in the list of importers of Kazakh durum, shipments to Portugal and Latvia continued.
The total volume of durum wheat exports in the current MY exceeded 400 thousand tons, which is 12% more than for the entire previous MY
There are few offers of durum wheat left on the domestic market: low-quality ones went for processing into feed meal, high-quality ones have already been exported. The balance is small.
Nevertheless, we are increasing our forecast for durum wheat exports in the current MY from 470 to 500 thousand tons.
Exports compared to the same period of the previous MY increased by 37% due to an increase in wheat and feed meal exports.
Considering the export potential in the remaining 4 months of the season, we are increasing the forecast for total exports from 11-11.1 million tons to 11.2 million tons, which will be an absolute record!
Accordingly, we are reducing the carry-over wheat balances at the end of the season to 2-2.2 million tons, from the previously forecasted 2.2-2.5 million tons.
Data on the export of wheat, wheat and feed meal in grain equivalent for 8 months (September - April) of 2024/25 MY provide a complete picture of the export potential of the current season.