The autumn soil moisture content was below average, so the start of the new agricultural season will be difficult. Moreover, the snow cover is not high enough. Of course, much will depend on how this snow melts and whether it rains in April-May. But in any case, farmers in Kazakhstan do not expect record harvests in 2025.
Eduard Dvurechensky, head of Melitopolskoye LLP (Kostanay region), told the ElDala.kz portal how the current conditions will affect the structure of sown areas and prices of agricultural products.
- In my forecasts for the new season, I rely on such an important factor as autumn soil moisture content, - Eduard Dvurechensky noted. - I work in two districts of the Kostanay region - Sarykolsky and Mendykarinsky. The autumn moisture charge there was about 150 mm in a meter-thick layer. This is an average indicator, according to which we can count on a wheat yield of about 15 c/ha. But, of course, it would be better if the moisture charge was at the level of 200-250 mm.
Sowing will take place with an average moisture charge of the soil
The second important factor that farmers take into account in their forecasts is the height of the snow cover. In the fields of "Melitopolskoye" it is now 15-25 cm. This is a low indicator, since 40 cm is considered optimal.
- That is, the current conditions are the lower limit of the average indicator, - said Eduard Dvurechensky. - So the start of the season, the conditions for sowing will largely depend on how the snow melts and what precipitation will fall in the spring.
Risks for sowing will arise if the snow melts extremely quickly and the temperatures are too high. This will cause rapid moisture loss by the upper soil layers. In any case, farmers are advised to close the moisture in the fields after the snow melts.
As for floods, they are not expected this season: firstly, there is no deep freezing of the soil, secondly, the soil has not been oversaturated with moisture since autumn, and thirdly, there is little snow in the fields.
As for the timing of sowing, if the soil moisture charge remains low, Eduard Dvurechensky advises going out into the field a few days earlier than scientists usually recommend. This will allow for more efficient use of spring moisture.
Of course, everything can change if April-May are cool and rainy. Then the soil moisture charge will improve, and the sowing strategy can be adjusted.
- Of course, for each specific farm, a lot depends on how the soil was prepared in the fall, - noted Eduard Dvurechensky. - If there was no autumn tillage, then at high temperatures the stubble background dries out very quickly. It happened that in May the temperatures were +30, and then by May 25 the moisture had already left.
In Melitopolskoye itself, they approach the preparation of the fields very carefully. They use vertical tillage - in the fall with the help of Ecolotiger and Barracuda units from Case, in the spring - with McFarlane tooth harrows (on autumn tillage) or Degelman (on stubble).
Oilseeds and legumes will appear in the crop structure
An important issue in preparation for the new season is the formation of a high-quality seed fund. Last spring, this issue was especially acute, since the 2023 harvest suffered from excess moisture during the harvest period, and the quality of the seeds was low. As a result, some farmers in the spring of 2024 had to sow with what was available, often with commercial grain.
Melitopolskoye LLP took a different path - they completely updated the seed fund, purchasing high-quality seeds from the Omsk Agrarian Scientific Center - elite, super-elite, propagation nurseries. Large-scale government support measures also helped this process.
This spring, the farm will continue working on its own seed production.
- Autumn 2024 was favorable, and we planted seeds with optimal moisture, - noted Eduard Dvurechensky. - But in order to continue updating the seed fund, we ordered several more new varieties of lentils and flax from the Omsk ASC.
Previously, Melitopolskoye devoted almost all its land to wheat. The current change in the crop structure with the introduction of flax and lentils into crop rotation is due to the market situation - wheat prices are unstable, and legumes and oilseeds show higher profitability.
- The Omsk ANC has a new good variety of red lentils "Garnet", we are starting to reproduce it, - explained Eduard Dvurechensky. - Flax - the "Saniya" variety - is also very good. I hope that in a year or two we will solve the problem of seed supply for ourselves. Because there is nothing good when you buy very expensive sunflower hybrids, for example, then the price of the commercial product falls, and the one who produced these hybrids keeps all the profit. But if we work with nurseries, reproduce the varieties ourselves, then we are the seed producers ourselves. And for the farmer, this is much more profitable.
There are enough high-quality seeds in stock
Returning to wheat - prices for high-quality grain were good even in the fall of last year. That is, when the ordinary "troika" fell to 50-55 thousand tenge / ton, for hi-pro they gave 90-110 thousand tenge / ton. And in Melitopolskoye, the main part of the 2024 harvest was of quite high quality. True, the yield was lower than usual, on average for the farm - 17 c/ha. The overall indicators were especially dragged down by those fields that were sown in June, after the end of the prolonged May rains.
So the issue of the stability of the farm's economy is not just in obtaining a harvest, but also in obtaining high-quality grain.
New varieties give the effect of both good quality and high yield in the first 5 years of cultivation in new conditions for them. After this, the varieties need to be changed. In Melitopolskoye, 7-8 varieties of wheat are currently in circulation.
- The propagation nurseries that we import usually show a yield of more than 30 c/ha in the first years, - said Eduard Dvurechensky. - Over time, this effect decreases, so we regularly update the seeds. Breeders are also now building their work in such a way as to produce a new variety every 5 years. In general, the task of any farmer is to sow with seeds of at least the 2nd reproduction. Then you can count on a good harvest.
Farmers expect prices for the new crop to rise
Of course, in order to be able to purchase seeds and other means of production, farmers need working capital. There is some optimism here. Firstly, the Agrarian Credit Corporation continues to issue loans for field work at 5% per annum. Secondly, wheat prices have also increased significantly. For an ordinary "troika" they now give 75 thousand tenge / ton, which is already not bad.
That is, conditions are developing when the farmer has the opportunity to comply with agricultural technologies using high-quality seeds and with all the necessary crop treatments during the season. (Of course, if it has already been possible to cover the losses of the disastrous 2023). Eduard Dvurechensky himself predicts investments per hectare this year in the amount of 90 thousand tenge. This will allow you to get high-quality wheat.
Whether such investments will pay off will depend on the prices of grain from the new harvest. Speaking about the forecast for wheat prices in 2025, Eduard Dvurechensky draws attention to two factors - expectations of an average harvest in Kazakhstan itself, as well as not the best forecasts for the harvest in Russia. Given this, the supply on the market will be moderate, and this should support prices.
- Of course, we are unlikely to see 180 thousand tenge per ton of wheat, but if it is 100 thousand tenge, then this will be good.
The issue of state debts for the payment of subsidies for the last two years remains a problem. In general, the budget debt to farmers is about 200 billion tenge. Everyone hopes that these debts will be repaid before the start of sowing.