In the 2024–2025 agricultural season (July–June), world wheat trade is declining. At the end of June, the FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations) lowered its previous trade forecast by 0.9 million tons, to 197.1 million tons. Wheat trade is estimated to be 204.6 million tonnes in the 2023-24 marketing year.
“This month's downward revision mainly reflects a lower export forecast for the Russian Federation due to lower expected production volumes in that country. Exports by some other major wheat exporters, including Kazakhstan and Ukraine, are expected to increase slightly, mitigating the impact of lower exports by other market participants,” FAO said in its monthly update.
As for imports, the volume of purchases has been reduced in Turkey due to a temporary ban on wheat imports from June 21 to October 15; in India - as a result of the government's announced continuation of import duties against the backdrop of sufficient reserves in the country.
However, this reduction was partly offset by the expected increase in wheat imports from China and the European Union.
According to FAO, world grain prices in June decreased by 3% compared to May and by 9% compared to June 2023. The decline was largely a reflection of seasonal fluctuations due to the ongoing harvest campaign in the Northern Hemisphere. Some improvement in crop prospects in a number of leading exporting countries, including Kazakhstan and Ukraine, along with Turkey's temporary import ban, also helped ease price pressures.