In its June report, the International Grains Council (IGC) lowered its forecast for wheat production in the 2026/2027 agricultural season in major exporting countries by 0.2 million tonnes, to 394.7 million tonnes.
Crop expectations have been raised for Russia, with the June forecast at 89 million tonnes (1.1 million tonnes higher than the May forecast). Ukraine's wheat harvest forecast has also been raised by 1.1 million tonnes, to 26.1 million tonnes.
Wheat harvest forecasts have been lowered in the US by 0.5 million tonnes, to 42 million tonnes, and in Australia by 2 million tonnes, to 27.7 million tonnes.
As for Kazakhstan, the IGC's June production forecast for this year remains unchanged at 15.3 million tonnes (compared to 19.3 million tonnes in 2025). Kazakhstan's wheat exports in the 2026/2027 season are expected to reach 9.1 million tonnes.
Early forecasts for wheat production in Argentina (20.5 million tonnes), Canada (36.6 million tonnes), and the European Union (137.5 million tonnes) have also been left unchanged.
However, IGC experts note that the development of the El Niño natural phenomenon in the second half of the year could impact yields in individual countries, changing final production figures. This effect has not yet been determined.
"There are also concerns regarding fertilizer availability, but the recent decline in input prices provides some relief," the report notes.