Evgeny Karabanov on the promotion of Kazakhstani agricultural products
Kazakhstan is an important economic partner for Russia, and especially for the Siberian regions, including as a buyer of agricultural products. Experts from Kazakhstan regularly speak at the 19th Winter Grain Conference. Evgeny Aleksandrovich Karabanov, head of the analytical committee of the Kazakhstan Grain Union, spoke about the state of the grain and oilseed markets in our neighboring countries, the export/import outlook, and the latest events that could impact these exports/imports. The APK News Agency is the information partner of the conference.
"This year, Kazakhstan had a very good harvest for 2025 – 30,894,000 tons of all crops: grains, legumes, and oilseeds."
The total sown area was just over 15 million hectares. The sown area has decreased due to wheat – this is part of the process of diversification, as producers are moving away from grain crops toward higher-margin crops – oilseeds and legumes. In 2026, plans also include continued diversification, reducing wheat plantings to 12.1 million hectares, but increasing the area under oilseeds and forage crops.
- Corn has great prospects. Chinese companies are currently building deep processing plants in Kazakhstan. The plan is to increase corn processing volumes to 3 million tons by 2030. Meanwhile, we currently produce one million tons of corn. Therefore, corn acreage will be expanded in the northern regions by using early-maturing varieties. Using Chinese technology and Chinese seeds, it is possible to obtain up to 5 tons per hectare on non-irrigated fields.
- The wheat harvest amounted to 19.326 million tons. This is the second-highest result in Kazakhstan's history after 2011.
A large harvest implies active trade. Wheat sales have begun briskly. In December, 1.76 million tons were shipped – an unprecedented amount. In January, more than one million tons were shipped. Most of the wheat went to Uzbekistan – 1,328,000 tons. Overall, more than 4 million tons of wheat were exported. Exports are growing rapidly, and buyers are active.
Everyone is concerned about whether Kazakhstan will import Russian wheat.
Russian wheat imports continue: according to official statistics, 285,000 tons; according to phytosanitary certificates, 531,000 tons; according to our estimates, 650,000 tons for September-December of the 2025/26 marketing year.
However, we may have export problems, the reasons for which I will discuss later.
Flour production is growing in Kazakhstan. More than 50 percent is exported. The main buyers are Afghanistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. The forecast for wheat flour exports is 1,850,000 tons.
Feed meal is also selling briskly. The forecast for export is 3 million tons. China buys 90 percent of it. Many of our mills have started producing feed meal, even Bühler mills. Can you imagine? Low-grade wheat is used. Initially, this flour went to northwest China, which was considered a good option for that region by the central Chinese government. But then our feed meal began to go to central China, which traditionally relies on local raw materials. Their wheat price is consistently $300, give or take $10, while our feed meal comes in at $280, creating competition in the domestic market. Chinese farmers' incomes are declining, and they will need government assistance. The central Chinese government has a different approach here. So, restrictions in the form of duties and quotas may apply.
- Just recently, a new Tax Code was introduced in Kazakhstan, which now deducts 80 percent of the VAT from exporters' VAT returns. This immediately had a significant negative impact on the market, and prices began to decline. Our exporters have tried to raise prices in foreign markets. We'll see what happens next. This uncertainty has already led to a sharp decline in export rates. These changes could also impact imports, which could decline.
This is an extremely negative fiscal measure. Direct losses for farmers could amount to approximately 200 billion tenge (35 billion rubles). Consultations are currently underway, and we hope that businesses will be heard...