Kazakhstan's grain market has started 2026 with rising prices. Domestic prices were impacted by the Food Corporation, which announced direct purchases of grains and oilseeds in December. Export prices are rising amid massive shipments to Central Asian countries and distant markets, according to Evgeny Karabanov, head of the analytical committee of the Grain Union of Kazakhstan.
According to the expert, over the past few days of January, prices for grade 3 wheat with gluten grades 23-24 (88-92,000 tenge) and gluten grades 25-26 (93-97,000 tenge), as well as grade 4 wheat (80-83,000 tenge), have increased by 1,000 tenge per ton.
Grade 5 wheat has increased by 2,000 tenge to 77-80,000 tenge per ton.
Evgeny Karabanov cited increased demand from exporters and processors as the reason for the price increase. Specifically, in the last days of December, there were massive shipments of grain and flour to Saryagash station. Shipments are also ongoing to Azerbaijan and Georgia, the port of Poti, the Baltic ports of Russia, and ports in the Baltic states.
"The increase in shipments to these destinations is due to the extension of subsidies for transport costs on wheat exports until 2026," the expert noted.
At the same time, Kazakhstan Temir Zholy continues to regulate traffic to Saryagash station. Restrictions on shipments to Dostyk (due to weather conditions) and Altynkol (due to crane repairs at Khorgos) also remain in place.
Meanwhile, wheat export prices continue to rise. Under DAP Saryagash delivery terms, the price of grade 3 wheat with 23-24 gluten content increased by USD 5 per ton (USD 228-233 per ton) and grade 25-26 gluten content increased by USD 235-240 per ton. Grade 4 wheat increased by USD 4 per ton (USD 217-222 per ton), and grade 5 wheat increased by USD 3 per ton (USD 205-210 per ton).
"The increase in export prices is due to a shortage of goods among importers due to previously existing restrictions on rail loading, as well as exchange rate fluctuations," noted Evgeny Karabanov.
Barley export prices showed mixed dynamics: at Saryagash DAP, prices increased by USD 2 per ton (USD 212-217 per ton), at Dostyk/Altynkol DAP, prices decreased by USD 3 per ton (USD 200-205 per ton), and at FOB Aktau, they decreased by USD 5 per ton (USD 220-225 per ton).
"Previous restrictions on grain and flour loading led to shortages and price increases in Central Asian markets. The price spread between different wheat grades is narrowing. Increased wheat shipments on subsidized routes will increase demand for grade 4 and grade 3 wheat with 23-24 gluten in the domestic market. Iranian barley demand is limited by the solvency of Iranian buyers. Barley prices on other routes, such as Saryagash DAP and Dostyk/Altynkol DAP, are fairly stable," concluded Evgeny Karabanov.