Military action in Iran has halted the flow of Kazakh grain exports to that country. Yevgeny Karabanov, head of the Kazakhstan Grain Union's Analytics Committee, told APK News that supplies have been frozen for the short term. The long-term impact will depend on the duration of the military action.
"We sell grain to Iran. Kazakh barley exports to Iran in 2024/25 totaled 1,228,400 tons. But now, military action is a direct force majeure for all contracts. I think all of this has stopped now. Due to the situation, volumes will decline," Karabanov said.
However, he emphasized that they had already begun to decline this year due to increased competition with Russia.
"Last year, Russia had a poor barley harvest. And since February, there has been a de facto ban on barley exports from Russia. "And so, in fact, we took advantage of that situation and significantly increased our supplies. And this year, we're competing in Iran with Russian barley, which has a very good harvest," our source also noted.
Naturally, all supplies will stop soon, the expert said.
But the next question is, how long will direct military action continue? Will there be a change of power in Iran? This doesn't mean a personal change, but rather a change in the political system. The future situation will depend on this.
"Right now, it's very difficult to say how long this will last," noted Evgeny Karabanov.
"Has everything frozen?"
"I think so. Yes. In the short term, yes. But in the long term, it depends on how long it lasts," concluded Karabanov.