In its August review, the International Grains Council (IGC) improved its forecast for grain production of all types (wheat and feed) in the 2025/26 season by 83 million tons compared to the previous marketing year. The expected result is 2 billion 404 million tons. The growth is mainly due to improved prospects for the corn harvest (+65 million tons), but estimates for wheat (+11 million tons), barley (+3 million tons), sorghum (+2 million tons) and oats (+1 million tons) have also increased.
At the same time, global grain consumption will also increase - by 49 million tons. The remaining increase will go to increasing stocks, which are currently at low levels due to high demand in previous seasons.
IGC experts predict a grain harvest of all types in Kazakhstan of 19.6 million tons, which is 4 million tons less than last year. As for wheat, the main type of grain in Kazakhstan, the forecast is 15 million tons against 18.6 million tons in 2024.
Who does the International Grains Council predict will have a higher wheat harvest than last year? In Russia, experts expect to receive 83.7 million tons (against 81.3 million tons in 2024), in the European Union 138.8 million tons (against 119.4 in 2024), in Canada 35.2 million tons (against 35 in 2024), in Argentina 20.2 million tons (against 18.5 in 2024).
For Kazakhstan, a harvest of 15 million tons can be considered a comfortable level, when the excess of grain does not put pressure on prices, but at the same time it is enough for both domestic needs and for export.
IGC forecasts wheat exports from Kazakhstan in the new season at 9.9 million tons (versus 10.1 million tons in 2024/25). Another 1.6 million tons will be used for food purposes, and 2.4 million tons for feed.