Kazhydromet has released a forecast of soil moisture reserves before spring sowing. According to the information, higher air temperatures are expected in April. This will affect moisture evaporation and rapid drying of the soil, which in some cases may lead to a deficit of soil moisture, the APK Novosti agency reports with reference to Kazhydromet.
However, Kazhydromet noted that, in general, the conditions that developed in the autumn-winter period will be favorable for grain-growing regions. Soils with optimal moisture conditions will prevail in the Akmola, North Kazakhstan and Turkestan regions, while in the rest of the grain-growing territory, conditions will vary, but are expected to be satisfactory to optimal.
As reported in the forecast, autumn 2024 was generally characterized by moderately warm weather. A decrease in temperature background was mainly observed in the second ten-day period of October. Warm weather in the first and third ten-day periods of October and in the third ten-day period of November was observed in most of the country. Heavy precipitation near and above the norm in October was observed in the predominant territory of the country, except for the north (North Kazakhstan and Kostanay regions), in November precipitation was above the norm almost everywhere, which generally contributed to the accumulation of moisture in the soil in the fall.
"According to the results of route surveys conducted in October-November 2024, in the predominant territory of grain-growing regions before going into winter, moisture conditions in the arable soil layer are generally satisfactory, optimal in the North Kazakhstan and Zhetysu regions, low moisture reserves in the soil (i.e. below 50% of the lowest field moisture capacity) in the West Kazakhstan, Aktobe, Pavlodar, Karaganda and Abay regions. In the meter-thick soil layer, favorable moisture conditions have formed, with the exception of most areas of the West Kazakhstan, Aktobe, Zhambyl, Abay, and East Kazakhstan regions, where there is an insufficient level of moisture reserves of less than 50% of the lowest field moisture capacity,” the review says.
During the autumn-winter period of 2024-2025 from the first ten days of October to the first ten days of March, the amount of precipitation was:
more than normal in most of the Akmola, Atyrau, East Kazakhstan, Ulytau, and Kyzylorda regions.
less than normal in certain areas of the south and southeast, north, and center.
about normal in the rest of Kazakhstan.
In general, during the autumn-winter period, the amount of precipitation was about and more than normal almost throughout the entire territory of the republic.
Forecast of meteorological conditions for April 2025
In April, the average monthly air temperature is expected to be 1-2° above normal throughout the republic. The amount of precipitation in April is expected to be near normal in most of the republic, above normal in the North Kazakhstan region, most of the West Kazakhstan, Kostanay, Akmola regions, in the west of the Atyrau region, in the extreme north of the Aktobe region, in the northwest of the Pavlodar region, in the mountainous and foothill areas of the south and southeast of the republic, below normal in most of the Kyzylorda region, in the southeastern half of the Ulytau and Karaganda regions, in the northwestern half of the Abay region, in the extreme northwest of the Turkestan, Zhambyl regions, in the extreme southeast of the Pavlodar region.
Forecast of soil moisture reserves by the beginning of sowing
The predicted elevated temperature background in April will contribute to increased evaporation of moisture from the soil surface, which may subsequently cause rapid drying of the upper arable soil layer (0-20 cm), and in some cases will lead to a deficit of soil moisture in the layer.
Precipitation in April is expected to be around and above normal in most of the country. Less than normal - in most of the Kyzylorda region, in the southeastern half of the Ulytau and Karaganda regions, in the northwestern half of the Abay region, in the extreme northwest of the Turkestan, Zhambyl regions, in the extreme southeast of the Pavlodar region.
"Considering the current conditions of the autumn-winter period of 2024-2025, the moisture reserves in the meter-thick soil layer by the beginning of spring field work in Kazakhstan are expected to be mostly satisfactory and optimal, but have an uneven distribution in accordance with how the autumn reserves of productive moisture in the soil were distributed, the amount of precipitation, the height of the snow cover and other factors," the RSE noted.
Forecast of productive moisture in the meter-thick soil layer for spring
In the Aktobe region, the expected reserves of productive moisture (PW) are predicted to be mostly satisfactory within 64-134 mm or 59-70% of the NWL.
In the Akmola region, the predicted values of PWL are characterized mainly by optimal values within 149-193 or 81-100%.
In the North Kazakhstan region, optimal moisture conditions will prevail at the beginning of spring field work 133-199 or 81-96%.
In the Kostanay region, moisture reserves for the period of spring field work are predicted to be optimal in the Sarykol, Uzunkol, Kostanay districts and in the B. Maylin district 117-193 or 82-93% of the maximum permissible capacity. Optimal-satisfactory moisture conditions are expected in the Mendykarinsky 74-193 mm (80-84% of the maximum permissible capacity) and Fyodorovsky districts 123-170 mm or 77-85% of the maximum permissible capacity. Satisfactory conditions are expected in the Karabalyk, Karasu, Denisovsky and Auliekolsky districts 106-170 mm (64-80% of the maximum permissible capacity).
In Pavlodar region, predominantly satisfactory moisture conditions are predicted in Kashirsky, Uspensky, Irtyshsky, Sharbakty Pavlodar and Zhelezinsky districts 88-150 mm or 51-80% of the maximum permissible limit, only in Aktogaysky district were optimal conditions developed - satisfactory conditions 90-104 mm or 70-96% of the maximum permissible limit.
In Karaganda region, optimal moisture conditions are expected in Osakarovsky and Nurinsky districts 140-204 mm or 81-109% of the maximum permissible capacity. Satisfactory moisture reserves are expected in Bukhar-Zhirausky, Abaysky, Karkaraly districts, as well as in the vicinity of the Kobetey agricultural post in Nurinsky district 97-172 mm or 58-72% of the maximum permissible capacity.
In Abay region, satisfactory moisture conditions are predicted in Urzharsky district 129-139 mm (77% of the maximum permissible capacity) and in Borodulikha 94-106 mm (76-78% of the maximum permissible capacity) district.
In East Kazakhstan region, optimal moisture reserves are expected in Glubokovsky district and Altai district 156-271 mm or 96-104% of the maximum permissible capacity. Optimal-satisfactory moisture conditions are expected in the Kokpekty district 115-166 mm or 77-104% of the maximum permissible capacity. Satisfactory moisture conditions are predicted in the Katon-Karagay district 101-113 mm or 58-59% of the maximum permissible capacity.
In the Almaty region, optimal moisture reserves are predicted in the Enbekshikazakh and Uygur districts 90-154 mm or 87-139% of the maximum permissible capacity. Optimal-satisfactory are expected in the Zhambyl district 83-241 mm or 60-97% of the maximum permissible capacity, satisfactory in the Raiymbek and Kegen districts 123-141 mm or 65-69% of the maximum permissible capacity.
In the Zhetisu region, according to the forecast, optimal moisture conditions will mainly prevail in the Kerbulak, Alakol, Sarkand, Panfilov districts and the city of Taldykorgan 132-274 mm (99-173% of the maximum permissible limit), optimal-satisfactory is expected in the Karatal district 69-183 mm or 53-133% of the maximum permissible limit.
In the Zhambyl region, according to the forecast, satisfactory moisture conditions will mainly prevail in the Zhualinsky, T.Ryskulovsky, Merkensky, Sarysu, Shusky, Zhambyl and Baizak districts 47-149 mm or 52-80% of the maximum permissible limit.
In the Turkestan region, according to the forecast, optimal moisture conditions will mainly prevail in the Tulkibas, Kazygurt, Sairam, Tolebi, Zhetysay, Makhtaaral, Arys and Keles districts 107-211 mm or 82-124% of the maximum permissible limit. Satisfactory moisture conditions are expected in the Ordabasy district 123-133 mm or 62% of the maximum permissible limit.