Barley exports from Kazakhstan are declining in the new marketing season. From September to October, shipments fell by 367,200 tons, or 25% compared to the same period last marketing year. In October, exports totaled 175,200 tons (excluding the EAEU), down 16,800 tons (-9%) from September, according to Yevgeny Karabanov, head of the analytical committee of the Grain Union of Kazakhstan.
Barley shipments are declining in two main destinations: Iran and China.
"At the beginning of the marketing year, barley exports to Iran were 18% lower than in the same period last marketing year, at 202,000 tons compared to 245,500 tons. The decline in export volumes is due to a shortage of vessels, a sharp increase in freight costs, and competition with Russian barley. "Unlike last year, Russia harvested a good barley crop this year," explained Evgeny Karabanov.
Exports to China in the first two months of 2025/26 totaled 83,500 tons, down 55% compared to the same period last year. This is primarily due to exporters being forced to limit shipments due to periodic bans imposed by conventional regulations due to heavy congestion at the Dostyk and Altynkol border stations.
Meanwhile, barley exports to other destinations are growing. Uzbekistan increased purchases by 35%, and Tajikistan by 45%.
"Barley exports to Iran are expected to recover in December, after the end of river navigation in Russia. Barley exports to China depend on the infrastructure capacity of the Dostyk and Altynkol border stations," noted Evgeny Karabanov.
By the end of 2025/26, the Grain Union forecasts barley exports from Kazakhstan at 1.8 million tons. This is slightly lower than the previous successful season, during which Kazakhstan exported 1.9 million tons.