Logistical challenges regarding the shipment of Kazakhstani flax to EU countries are intensifying. With Russian Railways (RZD) rejecting all transit applications for November, analysts do not anticipate any improvement in December; seasonal winter storms in the Baltic region are expected to further constrain port handling capacity, reports the APK Novosti agency.
Yevgeny Karabanov, a lead analyst at the Grain Union of Kazakhstan, has released an updated market overview for flax seeds. According to his data, the flax harvest in Kazakhstan is nearing completion. The Union forecasts a total flax seed harvest of 1.35 million tonnes for the current year, a figure consistent with last year’s output. Data from the Bureau of National Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan indicates that the area sown with flax in 2026 increased by 41.3% compared to 2025, reaching 1.904 million hectares. The primary reason for this year’s low flax yields was the hot, dry weather experienced during the summer in key grain-producing regions.
Russia
According to the Russian Ministry of Agriculture, as of early November, 1.6 million tonnes of oilseed flax had been threshed from 93% of the total sown area. Consequently, the total flax seed harvest in Russia is now expected to reach approximately 1.75 million tonnes—a figure lower than the previously announced forecast of 1.86 million tonnes.
Exports/Imports: Kazakhstan
Data from the State Revenue Committee of the Republic of Kazakhstan shows that flax seed exports in September of the 2026/27 marketing year rose by 33% compared to August, totaling 100,900 tonnes (excluding trade with EAEU member states). Compared to the same period of the previous marketing year (MY), flax exports from Kazakhstan in the current MY have increased 1.62-fold.
Exports to the following EU countries have declined (compared to the same period of the previous MY):
Belgium — 5.5-fold (to 2.3 thousand tonnes);
Poland — 1.8-fold (to 2.7 thousand tonnes);
Germany — 3-fold (to 0.4 thousand tonnes);
Estonia — 20-fold (to 0.1 thousand tonnes);
Italy — a drop from 0.5 thousand tonnes to zero.
Shipments to the following EU countries have increased:
Czech Republic — 2.7-fold (to 0.8 thousand tonnes);
Netherlands — 2-fold (to 0.2 thousand tonnes).
Exports to other destinations have also grown (compared to the same period of the previous MY):
Afghanistan — 2.03-fold (to 13.6 thousand tonnes);
China — 2.7-fold (to 71.8 thousand tonnes);
Uzbekistan — 2.23-fold (to 6.7 thousand tonnes);
Turkey — 2-fold (to 0.4 thousand tonnes).
A decline in exports (compared to the 2025/26 MY) was observed for:
Tajikistan — 2.57-fold (to 0.7 thousand tonnes);
Pakistan — 2-fold (to 1.1 thousand tonnes).
China accounted for 71% of the total volume of Kazakhstani flax exports in September of the 2026/27 MY. Afghanistan has been steadily increasing its purchases of Kazakhstani flax, ranking second among key importers in September with a 13.5% share of total exports.
China
According to Chinese customs statistics, flaxseed imports into China in September 2026 reached 129,100 tonnes—a 34% increase from August and 8.3 times the volume recorded in September 2025. Russian flax accounted for 60.2% of China’s total imports for the month (77,800 tonnes), while Kazakhstan’s share stood at 38.7% (50,000 tonnes). In the first two months of the 2026/27 marketing year (August–September), China’s flax imports totaled 225,500 tonnes—6.67 times higher than the figure for the same period in the previous marketing year (33,800 tonnes). Russia supplied 62% of China’s imports during this period, with Kazakhstan accounting for 37.1%.
Logistics to the EU
Shipments of Kazakhstani flax to the EU during September and October of the 2026/27 marketing year have been hindered by logistical challenges. These issues stem from difficulties in exporting Russian grain through ports in the Azov-Black Sea basin, which has led to the redirection of Russian grain shipments toward ports in the Baltic region (both in Russia and the Baltic states). The Northwestern railway network and the associated ports are currently congested with Russian grain, preventing Kazakhstani shipments from receiving approval from Russian Railways (RZD) for transit to Baltic ports. In October, all transit applications submitted by Kazakhstani exporters were rejected by RZD. No improvement in the situation is expected for November or December. In December, seasonal weather deterioration and storms are likely to further reduce port handling capacity.
Alternative routes for Kazakhstani flax—passing through Belarus and Lithuania—are more expensive and are also subject to restrictions. These logistical challenges are already affecting prices in Ghent. Flaxseed prices in the EU have been rising for the past 2.5 months.
Market Prices
Prices for Kazakhstani flax are increasing across all markets. Current prices for Kazakhstani brown flax (97% purity) are as follows:
EXW Kazakhstan: 362–372 EUR/t
FCA Kazakhstan: 400–405 EUR/t
DAP Poland: 495–500 EUR/t
DAP Dostyk / Altynkol (Kazakhstan–China border): 495–500 USD/t
C&F ARAG: 695–700 USD/t (for December shipment).