Barley exports in the current season demonstrate the maximum growth. Over 11 months of 2024/25 MY, Kazakhstan shipped about 1.9 million tons of barley, the APK News agency reports.
According to the Grain Union of Kazakhstan, in July, barley exports outside the EAEU countries reached 15.6 thousand tons, which is 33.2 thousand tons lower than in June. This became the third consecutive wave of a sharp decline in supply volumes, emphasizing the almost complete depletion of the barley export resource within the current marketing year (MY).
However, the overall result for 11 months of the MY looks impressive: the total barley export is 1 million 882 thousand tons, which is almost twice (1.8 times) higher than the figures for the previous MY and becomes an absolute historical maximum. This figure is equivalent to almost half of the total barley harvest for the specified period.
"The specific volume of barley exports for 11 months amounted to 49% of the harvest," said Yevgeny Karabanov, head of the Analytics Committee of the Grain Union of Kazakhstan.
Iran is the leader among buyers: since the beginning of the MY, 1 million 182.5 thousand tons of barley have been sent there, setting a new record for the last five seasons.
The key factors in this situation were the reduction of the Russian harvest, reduced supply, an expensive ruble, high prices and the absence of a quota for barley supplies abroad.
Meanwhile, China reduced barley imports from Kazakhstan by about 45%, stopping at 438.5 thousand tons. The reason was the internal ban of the PRC on the import of a number of crops, including barley, sorghum and corn, active growth in the export of Kazakh barley to Iran and temporary difficulties with delivery through the Dostyk and Altynkol checkpoints.
According to E. Karabanov, high demand from large importers has led to a noticeable increase in barley prices in Kazakhstan to the highest level since February 2023.
During the reporting period, Kazakhstan imported only about 79 thousand tons of barley, mainly from Russia, demonstrating the lowest level of purchases over the last three MYs.
Updated forecast for the 2024/25 season:
Given the shortage of raw materials and a significant slowdown in export flows, the Union has reduced the previously announced forecasts for barley exports from Kazakhstan for the 2024/25 season by 50 thousand tons, adjusting the expected total to 1.9 million tons.
Speaking about the future prospects of the market, Evgeniy Karabanov noted that the next agricultural season promises favorable conditions, thanks to the expected high barley yields in Kazakhstan, increased demand in the domestic market associated with the growth of livestock production and the increase in the share of barley in the diet of animals, as well as the continuing interest from key foreign consumers - China and Iran.