USDA estimated the volume of wheat and flour exports from Kazakhstan in grain equivalent at 8 million tons in the 2025/26 marketing year. This is 2 million tons lower than expected in the current season.
Yevgeny Karabanov, Head of the Analytics Department of the Grain Union of Kazakhstan, shared comments on the USDA report on his Telegram channel. He noted that additional demand for grain and flour supplies is emerging from Kazakhstan's neighboring countries.
According to the USDA forecast, imports to Afghanistan will amount to 4.4 million tons (+0.2 million tons), to Iran - 2.5 million tons (+1.5 million tons), to Iraq - 3 million tons (+0.7 million tons), to Pakistan - 2 million tons (+1.9 million tons), to Turkey - 7.5 million tons (+4 million tons) and to China - 6 million tons (+2.7 million tons). According to Evgeny Karabanov, in the future, import forecasts to Turkey and China may be revised upwards.
At the same time, export forecasts from the largest wheat suppliers are also growing. In the Afghan market, Kazakh exporters compete with Uzbekistan and the Russian Federation for flour, and in the Iranian market - with the Russian Federation, Ukraine, and the EU. And Russia and leading global exporters supply China. At the same time, Evgeny Karabanov draws attention to the advantages of supplying feed flour to the Chinese market.
In general, USDA forecasts wheat production in 2025/26 MY at 808.521 million tons, which is 8.8 million tons higher than the previous season. Production growth in China is expected to be 142 million tons (+1.9 million tons). However, Evgeny Karabanov is skeptical about this estimate given the drought in Henan Province, which accounts for more than 30% of wheat production in the country.
Production in the EU countries is forecast at 136 million tons (+13.9 million tons), in India - 117 million tons (+3.7 million tons), in Russia - 83 million tons (+1.4 million tons), in Canada - 36 million tons (+1 million tons), in Argentina - 20 million tons (+1.5 million tons), in the UK - 13 million tons (+2 million tons).
At the same time, a decrease in production is expected in Australia - 31 million tons (-3.1 million tons), Pakistan - 28.5 million tons (-2.9 million tons), Ukraine - 23 million tons (-0.4 million tons), Iran - 14 million tons (-2 million tons), the USA - 52.3 million tons (-1.4 million tons).
In conclusion, Evgeniy Karabanov noted that the sowing campaign has just begun in Kazakhstan, and forecasts for the future harvest in both Kazakhstan and other countries will still be revised.