On September 11, the 5th "Grain of Siberia" Summer Forum will take place in Barnaul. Yevgeny Karabanov, a representative of the Grain Union of Kazakhstan, will be among the forum's experts. In this interview, we discuss the extent of Kazakhstan's interest in Russian grain this season.
— Yevgeny Alexandrovich, in late July, media reports suggested that hot, dry weather would prevent Kazakhstan from achieving a high grain yield. To what extent did that forecast prove accurate? We know that a bumper crop can sometimes be just as much of a problem as a poor harvest. What is the general mood among Kazakhstani farmers? How challenging will this season be, and why?
— Kazakhstan is a vast country. Yes, there was drought in some regions, but not everywhere. The Pavlodar, East Kazakhstan, Abai, and Karaganda regions suffered from the heat. In other regions, the situation was more or less stable; periods of heat were interspersed with rain, so the crops didn't suffer. In any case, grain was produced everywhere. Of course, we aren't expecting record wheat yields this season, but overall, the harvest will be average—perhaps even slightly above average.
This summer, our harvest began 10–14 days earlier than usual—precisely because of the heat.
Kazakhstani farmers aren't feeling particularly optimistic right now. One reason for this is the situation in the Russian grain market. Given the geopolitical climate, everyone is wondering where Russian grain will go. With the drop in Russian wheat prices, the grain has become very attractive to Kazakhstani processors. Essentially, our grain prices are directly influenced by Russian prices. As a reminder, starting July 27, 2026, the government of Kazakhstan imposed a partial ban on wheat imports from Russia (with exceptions for rail shipments destined for poultry and grain-processing facilities, licensed grain elevators, and the Food Contract Corporation). Yet, even with these restrictive measures in place, Kazakhstan continues to purchase Russian grain in large volumes.
— Could you share some data on grain imports from Russia to Kazakhstan?
— Over the first 11 months of this marketing year (September 2025 through July 2026), imports of Russian wheat into Kazakhstan totaled 1.92 million tonnes. The Grain Union of Kazakhstan forecasts a total of 2.05 million tonnes for the entire marketing year.
That is roughly six (!) times the volume seen last year. Moreover, while in previous years Kazakhstan primarily sourced wheat from Siberian regions, this season we are receiving offers from Rostov, Samara, Saratov, Volgograd, Bashkiria, and Tatarstan.
In the current geopolitical climate, Russian grain is seeking new outlets, meaning Siberian producers will face stiff competition from the South for the Kazakh export market.
— News headlines frequently report that Kazakhstan is setting new export records for crops like flax and lentils. Which crops are currently the most profitable for Kazakhstan?
— Oilseeds—specifically sunflower, flax, and rapeseed—offer the highest margins for us right now. We are seeing a steady expansion of planted areas for these crops.
According to the latest reports, the total area dedicated to grain crops has decreased by 1.8%, standing at 14.855 million hectares. Specifically, the area sown with wheat (both soft and durum varieties) shrank by 796,000 hectares (a 5.9% drop) to 11.399 million hectares—the lowest level in six years. This shift is driven by a move toward more profitable oilseed crops.
Rapeseed saw the most notable increase in planted area, rising by 52.6% to 493,000 hectares—an all-time record. This growth is fueled by strong demand, high market prices, and solid profitability.
Acreage dedicated to oil flax also surged, expanding by 557,000 hectares (+41.3%) to reach an all-time high of 1.904 million hectares.
Consequently, Kazakhstan has claimed the top spot globally for oil flax cultivation area. Sunflower acreage also saw significant growth, increasing by 425,000 hectares (+23.9%) to reach a record 2.202 million hectares.
— This year marks the fifth edition of the "Grain of Siberia" forum. In your view, how relevant is a one-day summer conference like this? What questions do participants most frequently ask you on the sidelines? And with what mindset are you preparing your presentation this year?
– The format and program of the "Grain of Siberia" forum are always highly relevant. It takes place at the right time—just before the start of the new agricultural year—giving participants a clear idea of what to expect. It allows them to draw their own conclusions on whether to sell their grain now, hold onto it, and so on.
The forum also stands out for its team of top-tier experts and high-quality analysis. That is why I always take great pleasure in coming here to speak.
Background
On September 11, the "Grain of Siberia – 2026" summer grain forum will take place in Barnaul for the fifth time. Key speakers include leading macroeconomists and analysts specializing in the Russian and Kazakh grain markets.
The event is held with the support of the Altai Krai Government. Organizers: Altai Grain Processors Union, Altai Grain Conferences, and the ProZerno analytical agency.
General sponsor: logistics company Veter Vostoka; sponsors: AllianceTransTorg and the E-SHKAF plant.